Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy for the far - month inter - monthly spread valuation deviating from the norm. It is expected that the liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread will gradually increase by the end of May, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The price of Henan spot is 15,050 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan spot is 14,750 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; Guangdong spot is 15,440 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [4] - Futures Prices: The price of the "pig 2507" contract is 13,535 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35; "pig 2509" is 13,985 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25; "pig 2511" is 13,605 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 [4] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the "pig 2507" contract is 5,174 lots, a decrease of 1,503 from the previous day, and the open interest is 30,822 lots, a decrease of 503 from the previous day; the trading volume of the "pig 2509" contract is 20,829 lots, an increase of 568 from the previous day, and the open interest is 72,161 lots, an increase of 1,403 from the previous day; the trading volume of the "pig 2511" contract is 3,101 lots, a decrease of 485 from the previous day, and the open interest is 28,725 lots, an increase of 400 from the previous day [4] - Price Spreads: The basis of "pig 2507" is 1,515 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the basis of "pig 2509" is 1,065 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25; the basis of "pig 2511" is 1,445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40; the 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 450 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 380 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, and the value range is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength classifications are weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5] Market Logic - In April, the second - fattening procurement progress was more than half, the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down, the group's supply reduction during the holiday was obvious, and the change in spot prices was small. Currently, the price spreads between fat and lean pigs in the north and south are inverted, the group's piglet sales have decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. There are still second - fattening entry phenomena in the north, and the inventory accumulation rhythm should be continuously monitored; the macro - sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic [6]
生猪：关注远月套利
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-09 01:43