铅：短期震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lead market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,959.5 dollars/ton, up 2.19% [1]. - Trading Volume: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 39,686 lots, a decrease of 5,276 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 4,927 lots, a decrease of 161 lots [1]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 34,382 lots, a decrease of 2,547 lots; the LME lead open interest was 149,724 lots, an increase of 1,025 lots [1]. - Premiums and Discounts: Shanghai 1 lead premium/discount was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was - 16.08 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.56 dollars/ton [1]. - Import Profits and Losses: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 617.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.15 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three contract was - 525.61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.09 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 39,931 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; LME lead inventory was 255,150 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons; LME lead cancelled warrants were 134,525 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons [1]. - Recycled Lead: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 674 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton [1]. [News] - The US and the UK reached an agreement on the terms of the tariff and trade agreement. The US will maintain a 10% benchmark tariff, reduce the tariff on the first 100,000 imported British cars to 10%, and reduce steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. The UK will reduce the tariff on US ethanol to zero, and a reciprocal beef access agreement was reached. Trump said the agreement with the UK is not a template, 10% may be the minimum, and tariffs for other countries may be higher [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].