格林大华期货早盘提示-20250509

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be in a weak oscillation state, with the overall trend following the weak performance of the black - series commodities [1] - The spread between the prices of the two types of silicon is expected to widen in the short - term, and one can try to conduct long - spread arbitrage. For silicomanganese on a single - side basis, one can try to go short at high prices and set stop - losses [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese SM2509 closed at 5758, up 2.86% compared to the opening price; the main contract of ferrosilicon SF2506 closed at 5472, up 0.77% compared to the opening price [1] Important Information - In late April 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.02 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.202 million tons, a 1.2% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons (8.5%) compared to the previous ten - day period [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8741700 tons, a decrease of 95200 tons (1.1%) compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 14.7607 million tons, an increase of 289700 tons (2.0%); the weekly apparent consumption of the five major products was 8463700 tons, a decrease of 12.7% compared to the previous week [1] - South 32 announced the manganese ore quotation for China in June 2025. The price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore is $3.8 per ton - degree, a decrease of $0.25 per ton - degree compared to the May price [1] Market Logic - Yesterday, the daily trading position of silicomanganese decreased by 25000 lots to 413000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2992 to 120174. Although the spot pressure has eased, the absolute value of inventory is still high, limiting the upside space. There is a co - existence of short - position profit - taking and long - position profit - taking [1] - Fundamentally, large southern silicomanganese plants are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, but the cost of the manganese ore end is constantly declining, so the silicomanganese market is still regarded as weak. For ferrosilicon, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia decreased in April, but there is an expectation of an increase in May, and the power cost support is relatively stable. Although the number of production enterprises in the supply side for shutdown and maintenance is increasing, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change [1] Trading Strategy - Try long - spread arbitrage as the spread between the two types of silicon prices is expected to widen in the short - term. For single - side silicomanganese trading, try to go short at high prices and set stop - losses [1]