LPG：原油波动加剧，短期宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the LPG market, indicating that crude oil fluctuations are intensifying, and LPG is expected to experience short - term wide - range oscillations. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For PG2506, the yesterday's closing price was 4,381 with a daily decline of 1.51%, and the night - session closing price was 4,399 with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The trading volume was 66,542, an increase of 5,616 from the previous day, and the open interest was 58,883, a decrease of 5,322. For PG2507, the yesterday's closing price was 4,288 with a daily decline of 1.58%, and the night - session closing price was 4,304 with a night - session increase of 0.37%. The trading volume was 16,850, a decrease of 1,236 from the previous day, and the open interest was 40,833, an increase of 1,640 [1]. - Spread Data: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 789 yesterday, up from 752 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 839 yesterday, up from 792 the day before [1]. - Industrial Chain Price Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 60.1%, down from 63.2% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 65.0%, down from 67.2% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 45.2%, down from 47.8% last week [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being an integer within the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [7]. 3.3 Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On May 7, 2025, the expected price of propane for the June Saudi CP was 577 dollars per ton, an increase of 5 dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 557 dollars per ton, also an increase of 5 dollars per ton. The expected price of propane for the July Saudi CP was 546 dollars per ton, and the expected price of butane was 526 dollars per ton [8]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies, including Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with start times ranging from May 12, 2023, to May 2, 2025, and most of the end times are undetermined [8]. - Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many refineries, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Panjin Haoya, etc., have device maintenance plans, with normal production volumes ranging from 75,000 tons to 1,500,000 tons, and the loss volumes are the same as the normal production volumes in most cases. The start times range from April 5, 2024, to April 18, 2025, and many end times are undetermined [10].