Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, Fed's stance, and domestic policies. Different energy and chemical products have different market trends and influencing factors. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by seasonal factors, export policies, and raw material prices [2][3][5][6] 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 8, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4,839 yuan/ton (-37), and the market price in different regions showed some declines. In the long - term, PVC demand is sluggish due to the real - estate drag, and exports are restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. Currently, it is macro - dominated, and the disk shows weak consolidation. Key points to watch are tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [2] Caustic Soda - On May 8, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2,463 yuan/ton (-50). The inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply is still sufficient while the demand growth is limited. It is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. Key points to watch are the delivery volume and price of Weiqiao, inventory de - stocking, and mid - term alumina production and exports [3] Rubber - On May 7, rubber showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. If there are no major reversals in domestic policies and tariff issues, it is expected to run weakly in the medium - term. Key points to watch are tariff developments and post - tapping weather [4][5] Urea - The urea main contract fell 0.11% to close at 1,882 yuan/ton. The daily average output of urea is at a historical high. The demand side has different situations in agriculture, industry, and exports. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the 09 contract operating in the 1,750 - 1,950 yuan/ton range [6] Methanol - The methanol main contract fell 1.55% to close at 2,216 yuan/ton. The methanol device operating rate is lowered, and the downstream methanol - to - olefins operating rate is stable. The inventory situation is divided between the inland and ports. It is expected to run in a fluctuating manner in the short - term, with an operating range of 2,130 - 2,350 yuan/ton [7] Plastic - On May 8, the plastic main contract fell 0.61% to close at 7,016 yuan/ton. The supply side is under pressure due to new production capacity in the second quarter, and the demand side enters the off - season. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term. Key points to watch are downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff negotiations, and crude oil price fluctuations [8][9]
能源化工日报-20250509
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-09 01:53