Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is to adopt an oscillation mindset [1]. - For coking coal, due to fundamental drag, it is running weakly. For coke, with the collapse of the cost side, it is oscillating downward [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price and Market Conditions: On the night session of May 8, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, hitting a new low for the year, and the moving averages maintained a short - position arrangement, indicating a weak futures market atmosphere. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1030.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1003 yuan/ton [5]. - Policy and Supply: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were introduced, and market policy expectations were fulfilled. However, the safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, Shanxi's coal production remains high, and although imports have decreased slightly year - on - year, the reduction is expected to be limited. The supply - side pressure of coking coal remains high [5]. - Outlook: With the release of domestic policy expectations, the market returns to fundamental trading. Currently, the supply of coking coal is expected to be loose, driving the futures to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the future trend of Sino - US trade issues [5]. Coke (J) - Price and Market Conditions: On the night session of May 8, the main coke contract continued to be weak, hitting a new low for the year, and the market atmosphere has not yet reversed. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port in the spot market is 1440 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - Policy and Supply - Demand: This week, a "package" of incremental policies were introduced in China, and market policy expectations were fulfilled. After a period of fermentation, the market will refocus on Sino - US trade issues and the commodity's own fundamentals. Currently, coke maintains a pattern of increasing both supply and demand, with good demand performance and short - term fundamentals being acceptable [6]. - Outlook: With the implementation of domestic policy benefits, although the short - term demand for coke is acceptable, overseas risks and cost - side pressure from coking coal still exist. The long - short game of coke remains fierce, and the main futures contract is expected to maintain low - level oscillation [6].
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250509
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-09 01:52