交银国际每日晨报-20250509

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The "May Day" holiday data indicates resilience in the consumption market, with domestic travel reaching 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and total spending of 180.27 billion RMB, up 8.0% year-on-year [3][4] - The current consumption market shows a clear trend of downscaling and stratification, with county-level tourism gaining popularity and economic hotel bookings outpacing high-end hotels, reflecting a consumer preference for cost-effectiveness [4] - Consumer confidence is improving but remains cautious, with spending preferences leaning towards small emotional purchases and premium products, indicating a positive outlook for emerging consumption trends in the current economic environment [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes, with a more hawkish tone emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [5][6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed from June to July, maintaining an overall forecast of three cuts for the year [6][8] - The Fed's cautious approach is deemed reasonable, considering potential impacts from tariffs and the lack of clarity regarding future tariff agreements [6] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - AMD - AMD reported Q1 2025 revenue of $7.44 billion, exceeding expectations, with client business performance stable due to increased average selling prices compensating for a decline in shipment volumes [9] - The company anticipates a significant boost in data center revenue in the second half of 2025, driven by the launch of new products MI350 and MI400, with projected growth rates of 25% and 34% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] - AMD's valuation is considered attractive, with an updated target price of $142, reflecting a 31x average P/E ratio for 2025/26 [10] Group 4: Automotive Industry - Geely - Geely plans to privatize its subsidiary Zeekr at a price of $2.57 per share, representing a 13.6% premium over the last trading price, aiming to consolidate resources and enhance operational efficiency [11][12] - The privatization is expected to benefit Geely by establishing a unified platform for asset integration, potentially reducing costs and improving sales performance post-integration [12] Group 5: Internet Industry Insights - The domestic mobile game market showed a modest growth of 4% year-on-year in April 2025, with Tencent and NetEase reporting mixed results in their gaming revenues [13] - The U.S. court ruling allowing developers to link to third-party payment platforms may enhance long-term profitability for game developers, indicating a potential shift in the competitive landscape [13]