饲料养殖产业日报-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Pig Market: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - Egg Market: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - Oil Market: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - Soybean Meal Market: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - Corn Market: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - Spot Price: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - Supply and Demand: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - Strategy: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - Spot Price: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - Supply and Demand: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - Strategy: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - External Market: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - Palm Oil: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - Soybean Oil: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - Strategy: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - External Market: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - Domestic Market: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - Strategy: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - Spot Price: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - Supply and Demand: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - Strategy: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].