有色金属日报-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile after the holiday, and interval trading is recommended due to supply - demand tensions and potential demand - side impacts [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken as the current upward trend is hard to sustain with the impact of US tariffs on demand gradually emerging [4]. - Nickel prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend under the condition of supply surplus [6]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased fluctuations, and interval trading is recommended, with attention paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - Copper: As of May 8, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.90% to 77,330 yuan/ton. The US copper market was pressured, and the domestic copper price fluctuated significantly during the holiday. The supply - demand fundamentals are still tight, but the upward space of copper prices is limited. After the holiday, Shanghai copper may remain volatile [2]. - Aluminum: As of May 8, the Shanghai aluminum main 06 contract fell 0.69% to 19,510 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is improving, and the alumina market is in a state of mixed production. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the inventory is being depleted. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken [4]. - Nickel: As of May 8, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.36% to 123,630 yuan/ton. The inflation in the US has cooled, and the domestic manufacturing PMI has declined. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel production is in the off - season. Nickel prices are expected to be weak and volatile [5][6]. - Tin: As of May 8, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.16% to 261,480 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production may decrease, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production is expected to resume. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly, and interval trading is recommended [7]. Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Domestic spot copper prices showed mixed trends. The spot premium structure was firm, but the downstream consumption was cautious, and the trading activity decreased [8]. - Aluminum: The spot transaction price increased. The trading in the spot market was active, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased [9]. - Zinc: The spot price increased. The trading activity in the spot market improved, and the high - premium pattern supported the price [11][12]. - Lead: The spot price increased. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the market activity needed to be further improved [13][14]. - Nickel: The spot price decreased. Some merchants were cautious, and the market activity needed to be improved [15][16]. - Tin: The spot price increased. The spot market remained cautious, and the traders had difficulty in selling [17]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - Copper: The copper futures warehouse receipt decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons, and the copper inventory increased by 300 tons to 194,275 tons [19]. - Aluminum: The aluminum futures warehouse receipt decreased by 2,752 tons to 66,106 tons, and the aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 405,575 tons [19]. - Zinc: The zinc futures warehouse receipt remained unchanged at 2,053 tons, and the zinc inventory decreased by 750 tons to 170,650 tons [19]. - Lead: The lead futures warehouse receipt decreased by 50 tons to 39,931 tons, and the lead inventory decreased by 1,550 tons to 255,150 tons [19]. - Nickel: The nickel futures warehouse receipt decreased by 145 tons to 23,564 tons, and the nickel inventory decreased by 1,470 tons to 198,312 tons [19]. - Tin: The tin futures warehouse receipt decreased by 34 tons to 8,334 tons, and the tin inventory remained unchanged at 2,755 tons [19].