金信期货日刊-20250509

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in alumina prices may be due to short - term market sentiment, capital speculation, and supply - side disturbances. Given the overall surplus pattern and the expected loose supply of ore, it is difficult to determine this as a reversal. It is likely a rebound if supply remains loose and demand shows no significant improvement [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term trend remains oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] - Gold is in an overall oscillating pattern. The short - term decline is due to the ebb of避险情绪 and technical corrections, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11][12] - Iron ore faces high supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality exacerbates the high - valuation risk. A high - short strategy is maintained [15] - Glass is in a situation where daily melting is low, factory inventories are high, and demand is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies. A bearish strategy is maintained [20] - For soybeans, the supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, and the overall selling pressure in the soybean market has increased. The soybean futures market shows signs of a phased peak [23] Summary by Category Alumina - Fundamental analysis: The alumina market is in a surplus pattern. The previous rebound in the spot market was partly due to restocking in northern electrolytic aluminum production areas. Supply reduction is not significant, and the expected loose supply of ore weakens the logic of supply reduction [3] - Technical analysis: The previous alumina futures showed a BACK structure. Whether the May 8 increase can break the original oscillating pattern remains to be seen. If it fails to continue to rise with increasing volume and break through key pressure levels, it is likely a rebound [3] Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] Gold - Technical analysis: The external gold market has adjusted after a significant increase close to the previous high, and Shanghai gold has followed the decline. It is in an overall oscillating pattern. Short - term technical corrections are due to the ebb of避险情绪 and large accumulated gains [11][12] Iron Ore - Fundamental analysis: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to high supply surplus pressure, and the approaching seasonal off - season for domestic demand exacerbates the high - valuation risk [15] - Technical analysis: A large negative line was closed today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [15] Glass - Fundamental analysis: The current daily melting is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Demand growth depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [20] - Technical analysis: The price hit a new low today, and the bearish strategy remains unchanged [20] Soybeans - Fundamental analysis: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for the soybean futures market [23] - Technical analysis: Profitable funds have reduced their positions, and the open interest has continuously declined, showing signs of a phased peak [23]