申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the polyolefin market showed weak performance. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, and the prices of drawn PP from Sinopec were partially stable while those from PetroChina were stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, the consumption of polyolefins has temporarily reached its peak and started to decline. However, due to the fluctuations in the cost side, polyolefins, being undervalued, have resistance to downward price movements. The press conference held by the State Council Information Office yesterday released many positive signals, and the implementation effectiveness of the stimulus policies should be monitored in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 7290, and 7016 respectively, with price changes of -31, 27, and -30 and percentage changes of -0.44%, 0.37%, and -0.43%. The trading volumes were 27193, 792, and 274110, and the open interests were 67019, 4913, and 535267, with changes of 8332, -670, and 14775. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -342, 274, and 68, compared to the previous values of -284, 217, and 67 [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6904, 7082, and 6985 respectively, with price changes of -48, -33, and -44 and percentage changes of -0.69%, -0.46%, and -0.63%. The trading volumes were 17713, 701, and 266940, and the open interests were 36215, 4820, and 465901, with changes of 5505, -599, and 35997. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -178, 97, and 81, compared to the previous values of -163, 86, and 77 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2221 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2243 yuan/ton, 6600 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - Mid - stream Spot Market: The current price ranges in the South China, East China, and North China markets for LL were 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7900 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively, and for PP were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges for LL were the same as the current ones, and for PP in the East China and North China markets were 7150 - 7300 yuan/ton and 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (May 8th), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.91 per barrel, up $1.84 or 3.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.74 - $60.29. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.84 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.00 - $63.36 [2].