海通晨报-20250509

Macro - The macro team believes that the economic outlook, inflation outlook, and interest rate cut outlook in the US are filled with uncertainties, primarily stemming from tariff policy uncertainties and their economic impact mechanisms [2][4][5] - Short-term economic and employment data resilience further delays interest rate cut expectations, with inflation pressures expected to continuously hinder the timing and magnitude of rate cuts [5][6] - The expectation of a recession trade transitioning to a stagflation trade continues to develop, with US Treasury yields expected to initially decline before rising again [6][27] Automotive - The automotive team notes that since 2025, US Robotaxi players such as Waymo and Tesla, along with domestic firms like Xiaoma Zhixing and Wenyuan Zhixing, have been advancing their business and accelerating global market layouts [2][7] - US autonomous driving policies are gradually loosening, with more regions in China issuing relevant management rules [10] - Recommended stocks include Rongtai Co., Ltd. and Xinquan Co., Ltd. [2][7] Construction - The construction team indicates that the construction industry will see declines in revenue, net profit, cash flow, and ROE in 2024, with increases in liabilities, receivables, and impairments [11][12] - The net profit growth rate for eight major state-owned construction enterprises has decreased, while international engineering companies under the Belt and Road Initiative perform slightly better [11][14] - Recommended themes include cyclical commodities, Belt and Road/State-owned enterprise restructuring, undervalued high dividend stocks, and infrastructure stability growth [11][12] Aviation - The aviation team believes that the Chinese aviation industry has long-term logic, with expected recovery in profitability and upward movement in the next two years [3][17] - The demand for air travel during the May Day holiday was robust, with a significant increase in passenger flow and ticket prices compared to previous years [18][19] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation, Juneyao Airlines, and Southern Airlines [3][17]