航天军工：基本面或已处于反弹阶段

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aerospace and defense sector [5] Core Views - The industry has experienced a significant decline in performance due to various factors, but signs of recovery are emerging in 2025 Q1, indicating a potential rebound in the fundamentals of the defense sector [1][12][13] - The profitability of the sector has likely bottomed out, with substantial room for improvement in profit margins as procurement patterns normalize and cost-reduction strategies are implemented [2][18] - The sector is expected to enter a high-growth cycle driven by both domestic and international demand, supported by ongoing defense construction tasks and increased global military spending [3][13] Summary by Sections Overall Sector Performance - In 2024, the defense sector reported revenues of 4,191.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 12.85%, and a net profit of 152.58 billion, down 45.03% [12] - In 2025 Q1, revenues were 773.29 billion, a decrease of 14.36%, with a net profit of 42.01 billion, down 28.87% [12] Profitability Analysis - The sector's gross margin and net margin in 2024 Q4 were 15.25% and -1.52%, respectively, marking the lowest levels since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][17] - In 2025 Q1, gross margin and net margin improved to 21.65% and 5.67%, indicating a recovery trend [18] Capacity and Demand Outlook - The sector has sufficient capacity reserves, with fixed assets and ongoing projects increasing, suggesting readiness to meet future demand [3] - The report anticipates a new high-growth cycle for the industry, driven by both domestic defense needs and international military trade opportunities [3][13] Key Investment Directions - Focus areas include information technology, new materials, aerospace engines, and emerging domains, which are expected to benefit significantly from industry upgrades and modernization efforts [4][8]