资本品：全球机械制造商对关税影响的评估

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy and Weichai Power, while holding a "Hold" rating for Zhejiang Dingli [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the varying impacts of tariffs on global machinery manufacturers, with most companies expecting effects to manifest from Q3 2025. Komatsu is noted to be significantly affected, while others like XCMG and SANY Heavy are less impacted [1][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tariff Impact Assessment - Caterpillar (CAT US) expects a slight revenue decline in 2025 if tariffs remain, with additional costs estimated at $250 million to $350 million for Q2 2025, impacting 10% to 14% of Q1 2025 operating profit [3]. - Komatsu (6301 JP) anticipates a ¥78.5 billion impact for FY2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year decline in net profit [3]. - Cummins (CMI US) has withdrawn its guidance for 2025 due to uncertainties from tariffs affecting material costs [3]. - Oshkosh (OSK US) predicts a $1 reduction in EPS guidance due to tariffs, with efforts to minimize customer impact [3]. - Terex (TEX US) expects a $0.4 EPS impact from tariffs, primarily in Q3 2025, while aiming to absorb costs [3]. - XCMG (000425 CH) estimates a minimal revenue impact of approximately ¥780 million to ¥820 million, less than 1% of total revenue [3]. - SANY Heavy (600031 CH) sees a minor impact with U.S. market revenue constituting 5% of total revenue [3]. - Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) faces a significant impact, with the U.S. market accounting for 30% of total revenue [3]. - Zoomlion (1157 HK) is viewed positively for structural overseas growth despite below-expectation results [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The report favors companies less affected by tariffs, highlighting SANY Heavy, Hengli Hydraulic, and Zoomlion for their growth potential and overseas expansion strategies [4].