中辉有色观点-20250509

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to factors like potential de - dollarization and the loss of US dollar credit [1]. - Silver will experience wide - range adjustments. It is supported by potential stimulus policies but is highly elastic and affected by gold and base metals [1]. - Copper is recommended for buying on dips in the short - term, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc is advised to be sold on rallies. In the long - run, supply is increasing while demand is weak [1]. - Lead and tin prices are likely to face pressure on rebounds [1]. - Aluminum is expected to stabilize, with short - term weakness due to inventory and consumption factors [1]. - Nickel prices will face pressure on rebounds, affected by cost and inventory factors [1]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak position in May, with supply adjustment limited and demand weak [1]. - Lithium carbonate is weak. After a decline in Chile's exports, short positions can be moderately closed, and the price has limited upward momentum [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - 行情回顾: Gold prices adjusted after the US - UK tariff agreement and potential progress in US - EU negotiations. Silver also showed price fluctuations [2]. - 基本逻辑: The UK central bank cut interest rates, US employment data was stable, and inflation expectations changed. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to trade uncertainties and asset re - allocation [3]. - 策略推荐: For gold, participate when sentiment stabilizes, and take a long - term long position starting at 780. For silver, adopt a range - trading strategy within [8100, 8380] [4]. Copper - 行情回顾: Shanghai copper rebounded and regained the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - 产业逻辑: Overseas copper mine supply was disrupted, processing fees hit new lows, and domestic production decreased slightly. US copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory continued to decline, with a risk of soft squeeze [5]. - 策略推荐: Hold short - term long positions. In the long - term, be confident in the upward trend of copper. Short - term Shanghai copper should be monitored in the range [77500, 78800], and LME copper in the range [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - 行情回顾: Zinc continued its weak trend, with a slight rebound [7]. - 产业逻辑: Although the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose in 2025, recent disruptions occurred. Refined zinc production increased, but downstream demand entered the off - season [7]. - 策略推荐: With improved market sentiment and increased overseas zinc concentrate interference, zinc rebounded, but the upside is limited. Sell on rallies and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Shanghai zinc should be monitored in the range [22000, 22800], and LME zinc in the range [2580, 2650] dollars per ton [8]. Aluminum - 行情回顾: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina rebounded from a low level [9]. - 产业逻辑: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory increased, and downstream demand weakened. For alumina, supply was in excess, and cost support decreased [10]. - 策略推荐: Temporarily observe Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19200 - 20000]. Alumina is expected to operate in a weak range [10]. Nickel - 行情回顾: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [11]. - 产业逻辑: The increase in Indonesia's nickel ore royalty supported nickel prices, but domestic inventory was high. Stainless steel inventory removal faced difficulties, and the industry was in an oversupply state [12]. - 策略推荐: Lightly short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 127000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - 行情回顾: The main contract LC2507 hit a new low and then rebounded with reduced losses [13]. - 产业逻辑: Chile's lithium salt exports decreased in April. In May, supply was sufficient, demand did not increase seasonally, and costs decreased, causing the price to test the 60,000 - yuan mark [14]. - 策略推荐: Close short positions and observe in the range [63800 - 65200] [14].