Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Neutral [1] - L: Neutral [1] - PP: Neutral [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - PX: Bullish / px - sc spread arbitrage [1] - PTA/PTA - EG spread arbitrage: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Hold [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Neutral [1] - Methanol: Bearish / ur - ma spread arbitrage [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Neutral [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various chemical products, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and investment strategies. For example, crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical factors and OPEC + news; LPG moves with the cost side; PX and PTA show bullish signs due to supply - demand improvements [1][4][22]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Price Movement: Overnight, WTI rose 3.17%, Brent rose 3.17%, and SC fell 2.98%. The latest prices are WTI at $59.91/barrel, Brent at $62.84/barrel, and SC at $452.2/barrel [3]. - Basic Logic: OPEC +增产利空释放，中方同意与美方接触，叠加美国制裁伊朗相关企业，油价反弹。供给上，美国制裁相关企业；需求上，EIA预计2025年全球石油需求微增，印度4月燃料需求下降；库存上，美国商业原油库存减少，战略原油储备增加 [4]. - Strategy: Long - term, due to factors like the tariff war and OPEC + expansion, the price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, it's bullish but with limited upside. Sell bull spread options. SC focus range is [465 - 480] [5]. LPG - Price Movement: On May 8, the PG main contract closed at 4406 yuan/ton, down 0.99% [7]. - Basic Logic: Upstream crude oil fluctuates, downstream demand is average. PDH device operating rate drops due to tariff disturbances, and port inventory rises, limiting upward momentum [8]. - Strategy: Long - term, it follows crude oil and is bearish. Technically, it's in a range - bound movement. Sell bull spread options. PG focus range is [4380 - 4430] [9]. L - Price Movement: L09 (main contract) closed at 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [11]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side, new capacities are put into production, and import windows vary. Demand - side, the agricultural film season is ending. In the long - term, high device production pressure and falling crude oil suggest a short - on - rallies strategy. The focus range is [6970 - 7070] [12]. - Strategy: Short on rallies, focus on [6970 - 7070] [12]. PP - Price Movement: PP09 (main contract) closed at 7029 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [14]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side, new devices are put into operation, and exports are under pressure. In the long - term, high device production pressure and falling crude oil suggest a short - on - rallies strategy. The focus range is [6950 - 7050] [15]. - Strategy: Short on rallies, focus on [6950 - 7050] [15]. PVC - Price Movement: V09 (main contract) closed at 4854 yuan/ton, down 1.8% [16]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side, new devices are put into production, and inventories are rising. Demand - side, the real - estate completion decline narrows, and downstream operating rates are falling seasonally. Exports may weaken. It's bearish in the short - term, and short - term observation is recommended. The focus range is [4750 - 4860] [17]. - Strategy: Short - term participation, focus on [4750 - 4860] [17]. PX - Price Movement: On April 30, the PX East China spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton [18]. - Basic Logic: PX device maintenance eases supply pressure. Demand - side, PTA device maintenance is high. Inventories are high but expected to decline. It's bullish in the short - term or consider expanding the px - sc spread. The focus range is [6350 - 6480] [19]. - Strategy: Focus on [6350 - 6480] [20]. PTA - Price Movement: On April 30, the PTA East China price was 4560 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4434 yuan/ton [21]. - Basic Logic: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Downstream polyester operating rates are high but expected to decline, and terminal inventories are high. PTA is de - stocking. It's bullish in the short - term or consider expanding the ta - eg spread. The focus range is [4480 - 4590] [22]. - Strategy: Focus on [4480 - 4590] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - Price Movement: On April 30, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4214 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4155 yuan/ton [24]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance eases supply pressure, but imports are high. Downstream polyester operating rates are high but expected to decline, and terminal inventories are high. It may rebound in the short - term, and short - on - rallies is recommended. The focus range is [4180 - 4250] [25]. - Strategy: Focus on [4180 - 4250] [26]. Glass - Price Movement: The FG09 contract closed at 1057 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [28]. - Basic Logic: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. Supply is shrinking, and demand improvement is slow. Inventories are rising, and the market is bearish. The focus range is [1040 - 1070] [29]. - Strategy: Focus on [1040 - 1070], with pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - Price Movement: The SA09 contract closed at 1323 yuan/ton, unchanged [31]. - Basic Logic: After the May Day holiday, some device maintenance plans are implemented, but supply is still high. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. It's in a range - bound movement. [31]. - Strategy: No specific strategy mentioned in the provided text. Methanol - Price Movement: On April 30, the East China methanol spot price was 2443 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2251 yuan/ton [32]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. Cost support is weak. It's bearish in the short - term. The focus range is [2190 - 2240] [32]. - Strategy: Focus on [2190 - 2240] [33]. Urea - Price Movement: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - Basic Logic: Supply is high, but fertilizer exports are growing. Inventories are decreasing. It's bullish, but beware of price corrections after export benefits are exhausted. The focus range is [1860 - 1920] [1]. - Strategy: Look for low - buying opportunities, focus on [1860 - 1920] [1]. Asphalt - Price Movement: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - Basic Logic: Cost - side crude oil is consolidating, and downstream operating rates are rising. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and it's in a range - bound movement. The focus range is [3420 - 3445] [1]. - Strategy: No specific strategy mentioned in the provided text.
中辉期货日刊-20250509
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-05-09 03:11