Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Trade war pressure eases, but supply - side uncertainties remain, and the oil price is in a high - volatility shock stage, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [2] - The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but in the short term, it fluctuates frequently at historical highs, waiting for a callback to layout [3] - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on supply, demand, and inventory conditions, and attention should be paid to market news and policy changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: The overnight international oil price rebounded, with the Brent 07 contract rising 3.56%. Trade war pressure eases, but OPEC + rapid production increase pressure still exists. The oil price is in a high - volatility shock stage, and it's advisable to wait and see [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: LU performs stronger than FU. OPEC + over - production in June is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market has marginal improvement, but the sustainability of its strength needs to be observed [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The overseas PG market is supported by good chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure. The overall market maintains a volatile trend [23] - Natural Gas: No relevant content provided. Metals - Precious Metals: The overnight precious metals continued to adjust. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but in the short term, it fluctuates frequently at historical highs, waiting for a callback to layout [3] - Base Metals - Copper: The overnight copper price fluctuated and closed up. The back spread of Shanghai copper near - month contracts widened. It is recommended to short - allocate the 2507 contract or participate in the positive spread trading of near - month contracts [4] - Aluminum: The overnight Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, but the demand is under pressure. It is temporarily treated as a weak shock [5] - Zinc: The zinc spot import window is open, and the demand is expected to weaken. The previous high - level short positions of Shanghai zinc can be held [7] - Lead: The lead price is supported by production reduction and raw material supply tightness. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The supply of nickel increases, and the inventory of nickel iron increases. Shanghai nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short positions are maturing [9] - Tin: The tin price is expected to oscillate in May, and short positions can be held against 265,000 yuan [10] - Alumina: The production of alumina is temporarily reduced, but the over - supply prospect limits the rebound height of the futures price. Consider short - selling when the futures price is at a premium [6] - Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The supply is normal, and the demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the decline of hot metal output [15] - Coke: The price is weak, the second round of price increase is rejected, and the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [16] - Coking Coal: The price rebounds and then weakens. The supply is stable, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17] - Manganese Silicon: The price rebounds, the manganese ore inventory increases, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [18] - Silicon Iron: The price rebounds slightly, the demand declines marginally, the inventory accumulates, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [19] - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The night - session steel price falls. The terminal demand is weak, the supply pressure increases, and the market is pessimistic about the demand. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand and policies [14] Chemicals - Polypropylene & Plastic: After the holiday, the inventory accumulates, the supply is loose, and the market trading is light [25] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC accumulates inventory, the price is weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. The caustic soda price weakens, and there is no driving force for long - positions [26] - PX & PTA: The night - session oil price rebounds, providing cost support. PTA's inventory decreases, but there are risks in the medium - term [27] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand situation may improve, but there are uncertainties [28] - Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip: The short - fiber price rebounds due to cost support, and the bottle - chip is in the peak season, but the processing margin oscillates at a low level [29] - Benzene Ethylene: The supply increases slightly, the demand is weak, and the market sentiment is not good [24] - Asphalt: The international oil price rebounds, the overall asphalt inventory increases slightly, and the subsequent strengthening space of the crack spread is limited [22] Agricultural Products - Grains & Oils - Soybean & Soybean Meal: Pay attention to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and there is pressure on the spot and basis [33] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The cottonseed oil rebounds. The Malaysian palm oil may accumulate inventory in April. The soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and the palm oil is in the production - increasing period [34] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Pay attention to the Sino - US economic and trade talks and the soybean import situation. The rapeseed futures trend needs to be guided by soybean meal, and the market oscillates weakly [35] - Soybean No.1: The soybean futures price gives back the gains. Pay attention to the Sino - US economic and trade talks and policy - end transactions [36] - Corn: The corn futures price oscillates at a high level. The market has differences on the future trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [37] - Livestock & Poultry - Pig: The pig futures price oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of the spot price [38] - Egg: The near - month egg price weakens, and the far - month rebounds slightly. The egg production capacity is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be weak in the long - term [39] - Cash Crops - Cotton: The US cotton export sales decline, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The Zhengzhou cotton price oscillates, and it is recommended to wait and see [40] - Sugar: The US sugar oscillates. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [40] - Apple: The apple futures price oscillates. The spot demand is good, but the apple production may be lower than expected [41] - Wood: The wood futures price runs weakly. The supply pressure decreases, the demand enters the off - season, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp price rebounds slightly, the inventory decreases, but the market confidence is not good, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The supply pressure is the core contradiction. The market is in a game between sentiment fluctuations and over - supply. The Red Sea shipping interruption may last all year [20] Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market rises in a shrinking volume, and the futures index contracts rise. The Sino - US and US - UK trade negotiations affect the market, and attention should be paid to the policy impact on the market structure [44] - Treasury Bond: The treasury bond futures price oscillates and falls. The bond market's "technology board" is accelerating. The short - term over - decline repair is almost completed, and attention should be paid to the curve steepening opportunity [45]
综合晨报-20250509
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-05-09 03:19