5月FOMC：联储继续观望，强调不确定性以及滞胀风险上升

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive time, emphasizing uncertainty and rising stagflation risks[1] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 remained stable at approximately 78 basis points[1] - The Fed's current monetary policy stance is slightly tight, with a conditional wait-and-see approach before making further decisions[3] Economic Outlook - Powell described the U.S. economy as solid, with a balanced labor market and no immediate inflation shocks[2] - Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored around the Fed's 2% target, despite short-term inflation pressures[2] - The Fed's future rate cut decisions will depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations and actual economic data, particularly employment figures[4] Data Trends - There is a notable divergence between soft data (e.g., consumer confidence) and hard data (e.g., consumer spending), contributing to the Fed's cautious stance[3] - The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level, and labor market conditions remain solid[10] - The Fed plans to closely monitor hard data trends, especially employment data, leading up to the June meeting[4]