新台币大幅升值的启示

Currency Performance - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) appreciated nearly 10% over two trading days on May 2 and May 5, marking the fastest rise since 1987[2] - As of May 6, the TWD's actual effective exchange rate increased by 7.1% compared to March, returning to historical averages[2][24] Economic Impact - The TWD's appreciation is expected to negatively impact Taiwan's GDP growth by approximately 1 percentage point due to its effect on exports, which account for 55% of GDP[3][32] - Taiwan's current account surplus is projected to be 14% of GDP in 2024, indicating potential undervaluation of the TWD[6] Market Dynamics - The appreciation was driven by expectations of reduced tariffs between the US and China, alongside limited intervention from Taiwan's monetary authorities[1][14] - Increased foreign capital inflow into Taiwan's stock market reached 63.2 billion TWD during the appreciation period, reflecting heightened investor confidence[17] Future Outlook - The rapid appreciation phase of the TWD is likely over, with potential for moderate future gains depending on the US dollar's performance[31] - Taiwan's monetary authorities have indicated intentions to manage TWD volatility to mitigate risks to financial stability and insurance companies[25][39] Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of accelerated capital outflows from US assets if market conditions change unexpectedly, particularly if trade negotiations falter[40] - The insurance sector's hedging activities may increase, potentially leading to further TWD appreciation if not managed carefully[40][26]