2025年贸易行业分析

Investment Rating - The report provides a stable outlook for the trade industry, indicating a steady growth in import and export activities despite external challenges [2][5]. Core Insights - In 2024, China's total import and export value reached 61,622.89 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with exports rising by 5.9% and imports by 1.1% [4]. - The trade surplus for 2024 was 9,921.55 billion USD, an increase of 1,700.53 billion USD compared to 2023, indicating a significant growth in trade surplus [4]. - The report highlights a shift in export dynamics, with stronger performance in exports to ASEAN and other developing economies compared to developed economies like the US and EU [8][9]. Summary by Sections Trade Performance - In Q1 2025, China's foreign trade showed a stable start with a total import and export value of 14,343.67 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [5]. - Exports in Q1 2025 reached 8,536.67 billion USD, up 5.8% year-on-year, while imports fell by 7.0% to 5,807.00 billion USD [5]. Product Structure - The export product structure is improving, with mechanical and electrical products dominating, accounting for 59.4% of total exports in 2024, valued at 21,255.0 billion USD, a growth of 7.5% [9]. - The report notes significant growth in shipbuilding exports, which increased by 25.1% in volume and 57.3% in value [11]. Commodity Price Trends - The report discusses the fluctuating prices of commodities, with crude oil prices expected to face downward pressure in 2025 due to various geopolitical and economic factors [13]. - Coal prices are also projected to decline due to a relaxed supply-demand balance, with average prices dropping from 1,748 RMB/ton to 1,380 RMB/ton by the end of 2024 [19]. Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - The report indicates that the RMB exchange rate showed a two-way fluctuation in 2024, with the offshore RMB reaching a high of 6.97 and a low of 7.36 against the USD [26]. - The RMB index against a basket of currencies increased by 4.2% year-on-year, reflecting its resilience amid external pressures [26]. Policy and Focus Areas - The report outlines key policies aimed at promoting foreign trade and enhancing resource allocation capabilities for bulk commodities, including adjustments to export tax rebates [29]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to significantly impact China's direct exports to the US, with potential declines in overall export volumes [31]. Future Outlook - The global trade environment is expected to face increased uncertainty in 2025, influenced by US policies and inflation risks, which may hinder export growth [34]. - Domestic policies are anticipated to support economic recovery, with an emphasis on infrastructure investment and consumer demand [36].