中国中免（601888）：经营向好，行稳致远

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][10]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 16.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.938 billion yuan, down 15.98% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 1.936 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.81% decline year-on-year [2][6]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 4.296 billion, 4.383 billion, and 4.524 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 30.53, 29.92, and 28.99 times [2][6]. Revenue Analysis - The sales trend for Hainan offshore duty-free shopping is improving, with a year-on-year sales decrease of 11% in Q1 2025. The number of shoppers decreased by 28% year-on-year, while the average transaction value increased by 23%. The decline in shopper numbers is primarily due to a decrease in conversion rates [6]. - The number of inbound and outbound travelers in Q1 2025 reached 163 million, a 15.3% year-on-year increase, which is expected to drive steady growth in revenue from port stores [6]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin and expense ratio remained stable, with a gross margin decrease of 0.33 percentage points and a period expense ratio decrease of 0.20 percentage points. The net profit margin decreased by 0.67 percentage points [6]. Industry Outlook - The duty-free and travel retail sectors are crucial components of the tourism industry, which is expected to benefit from favorable development prospects and trends. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on new growth opportunities in the duty-free sector [6]. - The tourism industry is a significant part of China's economy and is expected to be a key driver of domestic demand growth, supported by policy initiatives and consumer preferences [6]. Future Growth Strategy - The company aims to achieve steady revenue growth by expanding regional markets, diversifying product offerings, enhancing consumer experiences, and optimizing store operations [6].