印巴冲突影响相对有限

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but closed higher, with military stocks leading the market amid the India-Pakistan conflict; the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28% to 3,352 points[16] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a six-day rise, closing up 0.37%[11] - U.S. and U.K. reached a trade agreement, boosting market sentiment; the Dow Jones increased by 254 points or 0.62%[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index rose above 100, increasing by 1.03% to 100.64, while gold prices fell by 2.53% to $3,306 per ounce[27] - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 7-12 basis points, with the 10-year yield at 4.38% and the 30-year yield at 4.84%[30] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 7 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with non-core consumer goods leading at +1.35%[9] - In Hong Kong, military stocks surged over 6% due to ongoing tensions, while technology stocks also performed well[11] Trade Developments - The U.S. and U.K. announced a trade agreement, marking the first since the trade war began in April; this has raised hopes for progress in other trade negotiations, including with China[9] - Trump indicated potential tariff reductions on China, which could further influence market dynamics[30] Investment Insights - Global AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth forecast adjusted to +64% for 2025, down from +77%, due to ongoing tariff concerns and market uncertainties[8] - Companies like Broadcom, Micron, and Nvidia are recommended for investment due to their resilience against tariff impacts[8]