中泰期货晨会纪要-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trading logic will shift from policy - based game to fundamentals after the policy - based game ends. For example, in the stock index futures and bond futures markets, the market will focus more on the actual economic situation and capital flow [10][12]. - Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions. For instance, it is recommended to short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices; have a bearish view on eggs; use a light - position long - spread strategy for apples; and take profit on short positions of jujubes in batches [17][18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China and Russia deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership, and the two leaders sign a joint statement [7]. - The US and the UK reach a tariff trade agreement, and the US reduces tariffs on UK cars, steel, and aluminum. They also plan to start digital trade agreement negotiations [7]. - Four major first - tier cities in China lower the provident fund loan interest rate, and Chengdu proposes a new provident fund policy [7]. - In April, China's passenger car market retail sales reached 1.791 million, a year - on - year increase of 17%, and new energy vehicle retail sales were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 59.8%, a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [8]. - The EU announces a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and sues the US at the WTO [8]. - The US starts the legislative work on a huge tax - cut plan, and the number of initial and continued jobless claims in the US last week decreased [8]. - Tensions between India and Pakistan intensify, causing the Pakistani stock market to plunge [9]. - Institutions and enterprises rush to issue science and technology innovation bonds, with a total issuance scale of 21 billion yuan and a registration scale of 18 billion yuan as of May 8 [9]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to pay attention to resistance levels and market performance after the release of macro data. After the central bank's policy announcement, the main indexes showed a pattern of opening high and closing low, and there was large - scale capital inflow into the Shanghai 50 ETF at the end of the session [10]. 3.3 Bond Futures - The strategy is to consider short - bond arbitrage and steepen the yield curve. After the central bank's policy announcement, the bond market shows a trend of short - bond confidence recovery and yield curve steepening [11][12]. 3.4 Container Shipping to Europe - The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential due to the lack of upward drivers. The focus is on the peak - season performance, and the market is waiting for the inflection point of cargo volume [13]. 3.5 Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are running weakly at a low level due to concerns about actual orders and demand. The international cotton price is affected by factors such as a stronger US dollar and poor export data. The future trend depends on macro - situation changes, US cotton planting, and export conditions [14]. 3.6 Sugar - The sugar price shows a volatile trend. Internationally, the supply from Brazil is expected to increase, while India's production is expected to recover. Domestically, the supply is relatively loose in the short term, but the uncertainty of import supply affects the sugar price [15][16]. 3.7 Oils and Oilseeds - It is recommended to short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is under pressure due to the expected increase in production in the producing areas, and soybean meal is affected by the recovery of domestic oil mill operating rates [17]. 3.8 Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [18][19]. 3.9 Apples - It is recommended to use a light - position long - spread strategy. The current situation of apple setting in the western producing areas varies, and the inventory in the producing areas is at a low level in the past six years, with the possibility of price increases [20]. 3.10 Jujubes - It is recommended to take profit on short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the producing areas. The market is currently in a range - bound state, and the growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is good [20]. 3.11 Crude Oil - In the long term, the oil price has a downward expectation due to OPEC+ production increase and economic recession concerns. In the short term, there is a certain rebound expectation due to factors such as the possible easing of the Sino - US trade war [21]. 3.12 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price follows the crude oil price rebound, and the market is affected by factors such as the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East and weak shipping [22]. 3.13 Plastics - It is recommended to have a bearish view on L and PP. The long - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the cost support is declining [23][24]. 3.14 Rubber - The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is possible to go long with a light position on pullbacks and set a stop - loss [25]. 3.15 Methanol - It is recommended to maintain a bearish view. The downstream demand is expected to decrease, and the long - term demand situation is not good [25]. 3.16 Caustic Soda - The near - month contract is expected to strengthen, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is strong due to supply decline and demand increase [26]. 3.17 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is expected to improve marginally in May, and the price decline space is limited, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose. For glass, the demand expectation is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly [27][28]. 3.18 Asphalt - The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the price is supported by inventory. The upper pressure comes from the oil price [29]. 3.19 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, polyester products are expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities [30]. 3.20 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The medium - term trend of LPG is affected by crude oil. Although the long - term price center is expected to decline, the domestic PG is stronger than crude oil due to the Sino - US trade war [31]. 3.21 Pulp - The supply - demand situation has no obvious contradiction, and the market is in a pattern of weak demand and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - sentiment [31][32]. 3.22 Logs - The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long term [33]. 3.23 Urea - Moderate export is likely, but the policy does not allow a significant increase in the domestic urea price. The international urea price is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [34]. 3.24 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices appropriately. For alumina, the price is expected to continue to decline weakly and wait for the ore price to stabilize [35]. 3.25 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, a bearish view is maintained before the actual supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upside space, and the 07 contract is expected to decline weakly [36][37]. 3.26 Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term steel price is expected to fluctuate, and the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be weak due to factors such as Sino - US tariffs and weak demand [37]. 3.27 Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed substantially, and they are in a downward channel. There is no condition for going long without large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [38]. 3.28 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to go long intraday. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to take profit on the sold 06 - contract put options [38].