集运日报：MSK公告25年红海全航线封闭，盘面低位震荡，风险偏好者可提前布局贸易战缓和预期-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may change its tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries. With the approaching of the long - term contract pricing window for US routes, retaliatory tariffs are added as a negotiation tool, which adds a major disturbing factor to the future of the shipping industry. Ship companies intend to support prices, but price wars among alliances are inevitable. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under radical tariff policies [3] - The positive sentiment in the macro - market has slowed down. With the spot freight rate remaining low, the market is in a state of long - short game and overall oscillating at a low level. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period. On April 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1340.93 points, down 6.91 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1200 USD/TEU, down 4.76% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2272 USD/FEU, up 6.12% from the previous period [2] - On May 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 930.24 points, up 2.40% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 764 points, down 4.04% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1477.93 points, up 19.67% from the previous period. On April 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.08 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1497.15 points, down 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 837.43 points, up 1.7% from the previous period [2] 3.2 PMI and Investor Confidence Index - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3] 3.3 Market and Policy Events - On May 8, the main contract 2506 closed at 1283.0, down 3.64%, with a trading volume of 45,500 lots and an open interest of 38,100 lots, a decrease of 1368 lots from the previous day [3] - On May 8, Israeli Defense Minister Katz warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels that if they continued to fire at Israel, "they would suffer a heavy blow from Israel." He also warned Iran [5] - On May 8, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks. The Chinese side firmly opposes the US's abuse of tariffs. The US should address the negative impacts of unilateral tariff measures and show sincerity in negotiations [6] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term investments [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large [4] - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, set stop - losses, and take profits when the price rises [4] - The daily price limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 is 16%, the company's margin for these contracts is 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]