中原期货晨会纪要-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed an upward trend on May 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for three consecutive days. The military - industrial stocks remained strong, and the AI hardware direction strengthened. However, sectors such as PEEK materials and gold declined. The market trading volume decreased to 1.32 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28% to 3352 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.65% [8]. - In the futures market, different varieties had different price trends. For example, in the chemical industry, crude oil increased by 1.887%, while PVC decreased by 0.455%. In the agricultural products sector, straight fragrant rice increased by 0.928%, and cotton No. 1 decreased by 0.116% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - China and Russia deepened their comprehensive strategic partnership, and the two leaders witnessed the exchange of more than 20 bilateral cooperation texts in multiple fields [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade talks, stating that the US should correct wrong practices and cancel unilateral tariffs, and China will not sacrifice principles [7]. - The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the US reducing tariffs on UK - made cars to 10% and on steel and aluminum to zero. They also agreed to start negotiations on a digital trade agreement [7]. - The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and sued the US at the WTO over its tariff policies [8]. - OpenAI made a major personnel adjustment, with co - founder and CEO Altman focusing more on core technologies [8]. 3.2 Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is stable, with limited speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Oils and fats: The external market lacks support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - Sugar: Affected by international sugar prices and domestic supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rebounds, paying attention to support and resistance levels [12]. - Corn: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is not advisable to chase long at the current price, and aggressive investors can try to go long lightly [12]. - Hogs: Spot prices are weak, and futures are range - bound. It is advisable to operate intraday [12][14]. - Eggs: Spot prices are weak, and the mid - term market faces pressure. Consider shorting in the far - month contracts [14]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The market price is stable, with high daily production and inventory de - stocking. The market may continue to consolidate at a high level [13][14]. - Caustic soda: The market fundamentals change little, and the 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level [14]. - Coking coal and coke: Trading is weak, and they may oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Prices are low due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy and trade agreements [16]. - Alumina: The spot price is relatively firm, and the 2509 contract may be in low - level consolidation [16]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is weak, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening. Pay attention to support levels [16]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese ore shows signs of stabilizing, and the double - silicon market is in weak oscillation [16][18]. - Lithium carbonate: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate in the range of 63,000 - 65,000 yuan [18]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock index: The index maintains a strong consolidation, and the strategy is to buy on dips. Consider arbitrage strategies [18][19]. - Options: For trend investors, it is advisable to defend. Volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility drops [20].