尿素早评：尿素偏强震荡-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The previous trading day, UR showed a relatively strong oscillation and closed at 1886. Looking ahead, due to the difficulty in confirming or refuting the changes in export policies in the short - term, two possibilities are considered. If export is confirmed to be liberalized, considering the large current price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the relatively considerable export profit, the domestic urea price may rise above 2000 after the export liberalization. If export remains restricted, after several rounds of false export speculations in the past, the price increase is basically taken back in the short - term. However, considering the expected peak season in the domestic market, the decline in urea price will stimulate demand, and it is believed that there is still support at the 1700 level. Strategically, it is recommended that long - position holders can appropriately realize part of the profits, and the remaining part should continue to monitor the direction of export policies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On May 8, UR01 in Shandong closed at 1786 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from May 7; UR05 closed at 1911 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.05%); UR09 closed at 1882 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.21%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): In Shanxi and Henan, the prices remained unchanged at 1850 yuan/ton and 1900 yuan/ton respectively. In Hebei, it rose to 1950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.56%); in Northeast and Jiangsu, the prices remained stable at 1900 yuan/ton and 1910 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 11 yuan/ton on May 8, up 1 yuan from May 7. - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 125 yuan/ton on May 8, up 6 yuan from May 7 [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream Cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively. - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained at 2980 yuan/ton, while in Henan it dropped to 2560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%). The prices of melamine in Shandong, Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1875 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1890 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1859 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1882 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1874 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 266569 lots [1].