对二甲苯：月差正套，加工费扩张，PTA，需求预期好转，多PTA空MEG

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. Each commodity has its own market situation, supply - demand relationship, and price trend, and corresponding trading suggestions are given based on these factors [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - Trading Strategies: PX for month - spread positive arbitrage and processing fee expansion; for PTA, with improved demand expectations, go long on PTA and short on MEG; for MEG, the same strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [4][7]. - Market Conditions: PX price increased on May 8; PTA load decreased this week but is expected to rebound, and a PTA device in Taiwan is planned for maintenance in early June; MEG supply continued to increase, with coal - based and oil - based devices having new changes, and some overseas devices restarted [7][10]. - Fundamentals: Data such as closing prices, month - spreads, and basis differences of PX, PTA, and MEG changed daily [8]. 3.2 Rubber - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate [4]. - Market Conditions: In April, the prices of main raw materials such as natural rubber and carbon black dropped significantly, and the tire raw material cost decreased. The domestic terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the sales of factories and agents slowed down [18]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of rubber changed daily [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate with support [4]. - Market Conditions: The cost side of butadiene has support, and the demand for synthetic rubber has increased. The supply of butadiene has decreased, and the inventory of butadiene production enterprises has decreased [20]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of synthetic rubber changed daily [20]. 3.4 Asphalt - Trading Strategy: Crude oil rebounded, and inventory slightly accumulated [4]. - Market Conditions: This week, the domestic asphalt weekly output increased, and the factory and social inventories both increased slightly [34]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of asphalt changed daily [23]. 3.5 LLDPE - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, with later pressure [4]. - Market Conditions: The LLDPE market price partially declined, and the market trading atmosphere was light. Considering factors such as new production capacity and weak demand, the price trend still has pressure [35][36]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of LLDPE changed daily [35]. 3.6 PP - Trading Strategy: The spot price slightly declined, and the trading was average [4]. - Market Conditions: The domestic PP market fluctuated slightly, the futures had limited guidance on the spot market, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average [41]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of PP changed daily [40]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, with later pressure [4]. - Market Conditions: The caustic soda price rebounded due to short - term downstream replenishment, but considering the off - season demand in the second quarter, it is necessary to compress profits and reduce supply to balance supply and demand [44]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of caustic soda changed daily [43]. 3.8 Pulp - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate [4]. - Market Conditions: This cycle, the pulp price continued to be weak, with pessimistic sentiment, abundant supply, and weak demand [49]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of pulp changed daily [48]. 3.9 Glass - Trading Strategy: The original sheet price was stable [4]. - Market Conditions: The domestic float glass original sheet price rose and fell in different regions, and the trading atmosphere was not strong [52]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of glass changed daily [52]. 3.10 Methanol - Trading Strategy: Oscillating under pressure [4]. - Market Conditions: The domestic methanol market mainly declined, with high production supply and expected increase in import supply. The port inventory slightly accumulated, and in the medium term, it entered a weak pattern [58]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of methanol changed daily [56]. 3.11 Urea - Trading Strategy: Expected to run strongly [4]. - Market Conditions: The urea enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the futures price was expected to oscillate with support due to the release of demand and increased speculation [62]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of urea changed daily [61]. 3.12 Styrene - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Market Conditions: After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene dropped, and the price of styrene is expected to be weak. The supply of pure benzene increased, demand decreased, and the downstream terminal orders of styrene decreased [65]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of styrene changed daily [64]. 3.13 Soda Ash - Trading Strategy: The spot market changed little [4]. - Market Conditions: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with device operations having minor changes, and downstream demand remaining cautious [67]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of soda ash changed daily [67]. 3.14 LPG - Trading Strategy: With intensified crude oil fluctuations, short - term wide - range oscillation [4]. - Market Conditions: The Saudi CP expectations for propane and butane increased on May 7, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased this week [69][76]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of LPG changed daily [69]. 3.15 PVC - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Market Conditions: The PVC fundamentals have high supply and uncertain demand. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the export demand can only relieve the pressure periodically [81]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and spot prices of PVC changed daily [80]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Trading Strategy: The domestic fuel oil continued to rebound, and the low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened in the short term, with the high - low sulfur spread of the overseas market temporarily stabilizing [4]. - Market Conditions: The spot prices of fuel oil in overseas markets had narrow - range adjustments [85]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed daily [85]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - Trading Strategy: Low - level oscillation, and lightly hold the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage [4]. - Market Conditions: The freight rates of European and US - West routes had different trends, and the prices of current - period European - line freight had different quotes [88]. - Fundamentals: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and freight rate indices of the container freight index (European line) changed daily [88].