聚烯烃日报：供增需弱，聚烯烃弱势整理-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bearish stance on plastics for single - side trading, and no strategy for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is in a weak consolidation phase due to increased supply and weak demand. Tariffs on propane imports will pressure the cost of PDH - made PP, and the production profit is already in significant loss. New polyolefin plants are continuously being put into operation, and the inventory of PE and PP is generally being depleted. The downstream开工率 of PE and PP is declining, and the terminal maintains just - in - time procurement [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7016 yuan/ton (-30), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6985 yuan/ton (-44). The LL North China spot price is 7220 yuan/ton (-80), the LL East China spot price is 7330 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price is 7150 yuan/ton (-70). The LL North China basis is 204 yuan/ton (-50), the LL East China basis is 314 yuan/ton (+30), and the PP East China basis is 165 yuan/ton (-26) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 84.1% (-0.8%), and the PP operating rate is 79.7% (+5.4%). The PE oil - based production profit is 765.7 yuan/ton (+80.6), the PP oil - based production profit is 415.7 yuan/ton (+80.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 486.4 yuan/ton (-28.2) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 158.4 yuan/ton (+43.9), the PP import profit is - 312.3 yuan/ton (+20.0), and the PP export profit is 27.5 US dollars/ton (-2.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 19.4% (-4.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.6% (-0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.8% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 57.6% (-1.9%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The total inventory of PE production enterprises is seasonally low, the PP inventory pressure is acceptable, and the overall inventory is being depleted [2]