摩根士丹利：Alpha Briefing_ 亚洲新兴市场如何应对美元下跌

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for domestic exposures such as Banks, Telcos, Real Estate, Utilities, and domestic Consumer Staples, while being cautious on global trade-exposed markets like Taiwan and South Korea [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the weakening US dollar is favoring emerging market (EM) currencies, leading to a favorable environment for markets and companies with higher local currency revenues [3][7]. - It emphasizes a preference for domestic-oriented markets, particularly India, Singapore, and the Philippines, due to their resilience against currency fluctuations [14]. - The report identifies sectors that historically outperform in a weaker dollar environment, such as Materials and Energy, while suggesting a focus on defensives and gold miners in the current atypical market conditions [19]. Market Allocation and Performance - The report provides a scorecard for APxJ/EM market allocation, indicating that markets like Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, and Australia have historically outperformed in a weaker dollar environment [19]. - It outlines the estimated upside to base case December 2025 index targets for various markets, with India (SENSEX) projected at 82,000 and Singapore (MSCI Singapore) at 1,900 [30]. - The report includes a focus list of companies with high sensitivity to a weaker USD, such as H World Group and Innovent Biologics, all rated "Overweight" [28][32].