医药板块24年报、25Q1总结：创新药产业链及原料药表现显著，H2多板块拐点向上

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The innovative drug industry chain and raw material drug performance are significant, with multiple sectors expected to see upward turning points in H2 [2] - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to continue outperforming the market due to improving quarterly performance and easing policy disruptions [4] Summary by Sections Subsector Performance - Chemical Pharmaceuticals: Q1 2025 shows continued improvement, with expected annual revenue of 450.12 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 26.69 billion yuan, down 2.6% [3] - Innovative Drugs: The sector has achieved profitability in Q1 2025, with expected revenue of 46.22 billion yuan in 2024, up 23.7% year-on-year, and a reduced net loss of 0.83 billion yuan [3] - Biological Products: Blood products show good growth, while the vaccine sector faces challenges, with expected revenue of 126.41 billion yuan in 2024, down 21.8% year-on-year [3] - Traditional Chinese Medicine: Expected revenue of 356.19 billion yuan in 2024, down 4.6% year-on-year, with signs of a potential turning point [5] - Medical Devices: Anticipated revenue of 225.71 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.9% year-on-year, with performance expected to accelerate in H2 [5] - Medical Services: Expected revenue of 80.05 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.3% year-on-year, with a significant recovery trend in Q1 2025 [5] - Pharmaceutical Distribution: Expected revenue of 925.27 billion yuan in 2024, up 0.3% year-on-year, facing pressure from policy changes [5] - Raw Materials: Expected revenue of 123.01 billion yuan in 2024, up 6.9% year-on-year, with a promising long-term growth outlook [5] - Life Science Services: Expected revenue of 35.46 billion yuan in 2024, down 0.7% year-on-year, with profit trends showing improvement [6] Market Overview - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation remains low, with a premium rate narrowing, indicating investment value [4][17] - As of April 30, 2025, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index has decreased by 0.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.54 percentage points [10] Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, the proportion of pharmaceutical heavy positions in public funds increased to 9.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [21] - The active public funds' pharmaceutical heavy positions rose to 9.6%, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points [21] Investment Trends - The medical health industry is expected to see a recovery in investment after two years of capital winter, with signs of a turning point emerging [37][44] - The demand for medical devices is anticipated to accelerate, supported by increased bidding activity [47]