首席点评：首个关税贸易协议获将达成市场风险情绪有所好转

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK reducing tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports. The EU plans to sue the US at the WTO and impose countermeasures on $950 billion worth of US imports [1]. - The market risk sentiment has improved due to the potential first tariff trade agreement. However, concerns remain about the escalation of tariff scale and geopolitical conflicts [1][20]. - The central bank's monetary policy adjustments, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, are expected to support the market and maintain a loose liquidity environment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Key Varieties - Alumina: The night session of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.46%. Overseas, Trump's tariff stance is inconsistent; domestically, the monetary environment is loosening. Alumina prices are falling, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Short - term Shanghai aluminum may be weak and volatile [2][24]. - Crude Oil: SC night session rose 1.71%. US crude inventories decreased last week. Some US producers may cut spending, and US oil production may have peaked. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but low prices may provide room for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran [3][12]. - Shipping: EC opened low and rebounded, with the 06 contract down 3.64%. Shipping rates in May are mostly stable or slightly decreased. The supply of European routes is in excess due to the spill - over of US route capacity. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [4][35]. b. Main News on the Day - International News: US initial jobless claims last week decreased more than expected, indicating a stable labor market despite increasing tariff risks [5]. - Domestic News: The Ministry of Commerce's press conference highlighted China's foreign trade resilience. China is firm on tariff issues, opposes unilateralism, and promotes multilateral cooperation [6]. - Industry News: The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of the Private Enterprise Promotion Law by breaking barriers, expanding space, and optimizing services [7]. c. Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index increased, ICE Brent crude oil rose, while London gold and LME metals mostly fell [8]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - Financial: - Stock Index: US stock indexes rose. A - shares also increased due to central bank policies. Short - term stock indexes may show a trend, and a wide - straddle option buying strategy is recommended [10]. - Treasury Bond: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations and policy adjustments have loosened market liquidity. The focus is on the progress of tariff negotiations [11]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Methanol: Methanol night session rose 0.14%. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased. Short - term methanol is expected to be bullish [13][14]. - Rubber: RU slightly declined. Domestic and Thai rubber production is expected to increase. Affected by US tariff policies, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin prices were weak. Consumption has peaked, but cost fluctuations provide some support. Attention is paid to the implementation of stimulus policies [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures were weak, and soda ash futures fluctuated. Both are in a period of inventory digestion, and the process will take time [17]. - PTA: PTA prices are under pressure due to weak demand and limited cost support [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol is facing pressure due to rising port inventories and limited downstream demand improvement [19]. - Metals: - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices declined. The potential trade agreement has improved risk sentiment, but geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold purchases support gold prices. Gold may continue to be strong and consolidate [20][21]. - Copper: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable domestic demand support copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose at night. Domestic demand is stable, and the market expects an increase in supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [23]. - Nickel: Nickel prices rose slightly. Tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and downstream procurement demand support nickel prices, but stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may fluctuate within a range [25]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply decreased slightly, demand increased in March, and inventory increased. Upstream mine prices are weakening, and lithium prices may decline further [26][27]. - Black Metals: - Iron Ore: Iron ore demand is supported by steel mill复产, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It may be supported in the short term and weak in the medium term [28]. - Steel: Steel supply is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Demand is expected to weaken due to the rainy season and overseas tariffs. Steel prices may be weak and volatile [29]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal prices were weak, affected by coke prices and increasing supply [30]. - Coke: Coke prices were weak, with the failure of the second - round price increase and the expected price cut. It is affected by steel demand [31]. - Agricultural Products: - Corn/Corn Starch: Corn may correct in the short term. Supply is tight at high prices, and there are concerns about import reserve auctions. It should be treated cautiously bullish [32]. - Cotton: US cotton prices are volatile due to economic uncertainties. Zhengzhou cotton is also fluctuating, and the market is waiting for new demand channels [33]. - Shipping Index: The European container shipping market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to supply - demand imbalances and tariff policies [35].