国新会点评:巩固市场维稳向好,关注IM
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-09 06:11
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "5.7 package of policies" is a deep - seated advancement of the "9.24 policy combination", aiming to enhance market expectations, stimulate market entity vitality, and support the real economy and capital market [2]. - With the inflow of long - term funds, savings funds, and foreign capital, the A - share market is expected to enter a new upward cycle [14]. - The technology sector is the biggest beneficiary of the policy dividends, with clear value - growth logic, and the technology - led investment theme in the A - share market is further strengthened [15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Background and Policy Comparison - The "9.24 policy combination" was introduced when the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2700 points, aiming at "market rescue", while the "5.7 package of policies" focuses on "stabilizing expectations" and structural optimization [3]. - The "5.7 package of policies" is introduced due to the impact of Sino - US tariff games, low - running prices, and the need to maintain the stable development of core markets [4][7][9]. 3.2 Policy Content - Monetary Policy: Both the "9.24 policy combination" and the "5.7 package of policies" include a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut. The "5.7 package of policies" also reduces the reserve requirement ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0%. The "9.24 policy combination" cuts interest rates by 20bp, while the "5.7 package of policies" cuts interest rates by 10bp and reduces the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [3]. - Capital Market Policy: The "9.24 policy combination" creates swap facilities and re - loan tools. The "5.7 package of policies" increases the scale of structural funds, creates risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and expands the scope of long - term investment pilot projects for insurance funds [3]. - Real Estate Policy: The "9.24 policy combination" reduces the stock mortgage rate and unifies the minimum down - payment ratio for first - and second - home mortgages. The "5.7 package of policies" reduces the individual housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points [3]. 3.3 Market Situation - Capital Market: In May, the stock index trend is affected by the expectation of incremental policies and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations. After the release of multiple positive factors, the stock index achieved a "good start" in May, but market divergence has increased [12]. - Real Estate Market: The real estate market has shown signs of improvement, but the new - home sales momentum is insufficient. Continued policy support is needed to promote its stable and healthy development [11]. 3.4 Investment Opportunities - Overall Market: With the inflow of long - term funds, savings funds, and foreign capital, the A - share market is expected to enter a new upward cycle [14]. - Technology Sector: It is the biggest beneficiary of the policy dividends. Emerging sectors such as AI computing power and low - altitude economy have long - term investment value, and it is recommended to invest in segments of the consumer electronics recovery chain and robot industry chain [15].