2025年4月贸易数据解读：4月关税战影响开始体现，冲击烈度低于预期

Export Performance - In April 2025, China's export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points compared to March[2] - Exports to the US fell by 21.0% year-on-year, a decline of 30.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The overall export growth was supported by a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the US, with ASEAN exports rising by 20.8%[4] Import Trends - In April 2025, China's import value decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.1 percentage points from March[7] - Imports from the US dropped by 13.8%, with the decline expanding by 4.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - Significant increases in imports from non-US economies, such as a 2.5% rise from Japan and a 7.3% increase from South Korea, were noted[8] Future Outlook - The impact of the tariff war is expected to intensify, with May exports potentially turning negative, particularly a forecasted 60% decline in exports to the US[5] - Domestic support for foreign trade enterprises will increase, focusing on diversifying international markets and enhancing domestic sales platforms[6] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in April, indicating contraction, with expectations of further declines in imports and overall trade performance in May[10]