宏观研究：汇率压力降低放行货币政策，结构性投资机会将再次展开

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market[14] - The anticipated upper limit for annual consumption growth is around 5.5%-6%, with future retail sales growth projected between 6.1%-6.8%[16] - The recent appreciation of the RMB during the May Day holiday, from 7.2689 to 7.2080 against the USD, represents a 0.84% increase, easing the constraints on monetary policy[13] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Structural Opportunities - The marginal propensity to consume has not improved, with consumption recovery primarily driven by income growth[16] - The central bank's interest rate cut of 10 basis points is expected to lower the loan market quotation rate (LPR) by a similar margin, indirectly increasing disposable income and stimulating consumption[17] - A structural monetary policy tool for service consumption and elderly care loans has been established, with a total of 500 billion yuan allocated to enhance credit support in these areas[18] Group 3: Capital Market Confidence - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering from previous shocks, indicating a potential for a "slow bull" market[21] - The central government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the market and expectations, with a focus on attracting long-term capital into the market[22] - The total amount for two capital market support tools has been combined to 800 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing market stability and vitality[23]