碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松，三元材料厂库存量较上周减少-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to be loose in May, and the price of lithium carbonate may fall and be difficult to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 19,000 - 60,000 and the pressure level around 60,000 - 73,000/75,000 [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Lithium Futures Market - On May 8, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 64,500 yuan/ton, 64,280 yuan/ton, 65,240 yuan/ton, and 65,240 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 309,284 lots, the open interest was 267,396 lots, and the inventory was 36,241 tons [1] - The price differences between different contracts and the basis have changed. For example, the difference between the near - month and continuous first contracts increased by 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1] Lithium Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide have changed. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 65,250 yuan/ton [1] - The price differences between different types of lithium products also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 800 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - Changsha Fudi Battery Co., Ltd.'s PCX production line expansion project has passed the administrative license, with a total investment of 100 million yuan. After the expansion, it can produce 19GWh of battery packs annually [2] - Bayi Jukong decided to terminate the "Annual Production of 3,000 Tons of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Project" [3] - The first - phase cell workshop of Penghui Energy's energy - storage battery production project with a total investment of 19 billion yuan has been completed. The first - phase project covers an area of 275 mu with a production capacity of 22,690, mainly producing 314Ah lithium iron phosphate large - energy - storage cells [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: After Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium 55,000 - ton wet - process project is put into production in October 2025, the total production capacity will reach 240,000 tons/year, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic (imported) lithium ore. Some lithium salt production lines will be inspected or newly built, which may affect the supply of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [4] - Demand side: The production and inventory of some products such as iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate may increase. The production of some cobalt salts may decrease due to rising costs [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price of lithium carbonate rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 19,000 - 60,000 and the pressure level around 60,000 - 73,000/75,000 [5]