国新办发布会点评二季度经济运行不确定性加大，政策对冲恰逢其时

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations despite a high base from the previous year[2] - The trade war initiated in April 2025 has increased economic uncertainty, leading to downward revisions in GDP growth forecasts by international institutions[3] Monetary Policy Response - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a comprehensive financial policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity[4] - The PBOC also lowered the benchmark interest rate for 7-day reverse repos from 1.5% to 1.4%, potentially reducing the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[10] Sector-Specific Measures - The RRR for auto finance and financial leasing companies was reduced from 5% to 0%, aimed at stimulating auto consumption and reducing manufacturing costs[10] - The personal housing provident fund loan rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%[10] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating improved consumer sentiment[17] - The consumer spending propensity reached 63.1% in Q1 2025, the highest for the first quarter since 2020, reflecting a positive trend in domestic consumption[17] Trade War Impact - The trade war could potentially reduce China's GDP growth by approximately 2 percentage points if high tariffs completely disrupt trade with the U.S.[18] - However, the IMF estimates a more moderate impact, projecting a 0.6% reduction in GDP growth due to the trade conflict[18] Policy Outlook - The PBOC signaled readiness for further monetary easing if economic conditions worsen due to external shocks, maintaining significant policy space[12] - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to support domestic demand, countering external uncertainties[16]