固收周报：5月债市展望-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate provides room for domestic monetary policy, and bond yields are expected to break through previous lows. The RMB exchange rate has shown a short - term strengthening trend due to factors such as fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade relations, the weakening of the US dollar index, domestic economic recovery, and risk - aversion sentiment. The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate may trigger a bond market rally in May, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds expected to break through previous lows. It is recommended that investors seize the rhythm, with trading accounts adding positions on adjustments and allocation accounts paying attention to opportunities when local bond supply increases [4][69]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bonds 1.1 Liquidity Observation From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 199.98 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 124.48 billion yuan under the full - caliber. Inter - bank capital prices mostly increased, with DR001 rising 18.29BP to 1.7853% and DR007 rising 7.87BP to 1.7986%. Exchange - traded capital prices showed mixed trends [1][15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 135.092 billion yuan, with a net financing of 134.697 billion yuan. Treasury bonds were not issued, policy - based financial bonds raised 42 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased compared to the previous period, raising 93.092 billion yuan [1][24]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading From April 25 to April 30, 2025, most Treasury bond spot yields declined. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.98BP to 1.4599%, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bond yields declined 4.26BP, 2.70BP, 3.52BP, and 3.63BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 21.05BP to 16.44BP. The spot yields of China Development Bank bonds also declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 12.77BP to 9.35BP [1][30]. 2. Credit Bonds 2.1 Primary Market Issuance From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased. A total of 443 new credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 460.695 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 135 billion yuan. The net financing was - 208.918 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. In terms of bond ratings, AAA - rated bonds accounted for 55.99% of the total issuance. Credit bond issuance was mainly within 1 year. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][41]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading From April 25 to April 30, 2025, most of the maturity yields of urban investment bonds declined, with the 10 - year AA - rated bonds having the largest decline of 4.96BP. Most of the maturity yields of medium - and short - term notes also declined, with the 10 - year AAA, AA +, and AA - rated notes having the largest decline of 3.49BP [2][52]. 2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [54]. 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Overall Rise of European and American Stock Indices From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the three major US stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 3.00%, the S&P 500 rising 2.92%, and the Nasdaq rising 3.42%. European stock indices also rose, with the German DAX rising 3.80%, the French CAC40 rising 3.11%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 2.15%. Most Asia - Pacific stock indices rose, except for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Russian Index [3][55]. 3.2 Overall Rise of US Treasury Yields From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the yields of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 5.00BP, 6.00BP, 4.00BP, 5.00BP, and 4.00BP respectively [3][57]. 3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies The US dollar index rose 0.46% week - on - week, and non - US currencies weakened. The pound sterling, euro, and yen against the US dollar all declined, while the US dollar against the RMB declined 0.07% [3][61]. 3.4 Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the prices of crude oil and gold declined. The COMEX gold futures price fell 1.44%, and the London spot gold price fell 0.84%. The Brent crude oil price fell 8.34%, and the WTI crude oil price fell 7.51% [3][63]. 4. Investment Suggestions The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate provides room for domestic monetary policy. In May, the central bank's simultaneous implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may trigger a bond market rally. The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is expected to break through previous lows. It is recommended that trading accounts add positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to opportunities when local bond supply increases [4][69].