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FICC日报:关注中国4月进出口数据市场分析-20250509
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-09 07:29

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Core Viewpoints - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the economy, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive macro - policies. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, but the April official manufacturing PMI declined, indicating the impact of tariff policies. A package of financial policies were introduced on May 7 to boost the economy [1] - The impact of tariff events on sentiment has subsided, and attention should be paid to their impact on the economy. Tariff negotiations are progressing, which may lead to more moderate macro - fluctuations. Before July, macro - economic activities are expected to focus on factual verification [1] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Be wary of the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products and the price fluctuations of agricultural products. Crude oil supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and be cautious about the emotional and corrective risks of gold [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The April Politburo meeting judged the current economy, advocated more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and proposed measures such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups and promoting urban renewal. China's Q1 GDP maintained a stable and upward trend, but the April official manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with new orders and production in the contraction range [1] - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies, including the central bank's ten monetary policy measures, the financial regulatory administration's eight incremental policies, and the CSRC's measures to stabilize and activate the capital market [1] - The Trump tariff policy is still volatile. The US imposed a 25% tariff on imported auto parts on May 3, and considered a 100% tariff on foreign - made movies. Tariff negotiations between the US and other countries are in progress, and the EU proposed a tariff plan for US goods worth 95 billion euros if the negotiation fails [1] - The US May FOMC meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged, indicating increased economic uncertainty. The yield of Japanese 30 - year treasury bonds soared on May 7. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and traders reduced their bets on further interest rate cuts [1] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff - addition events first affected demand and then inflation. Be cautious about the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals [2] - The US - Ukraine mineral agreement was signed on April 30 and approved by the Ukrainian parliament on May 8. An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru supported copper prices. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and pay attention to the change in the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] - The IEA monthly report lowered the forecast for this year's oil demand. OPEC+ confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the production - increase rhythm in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [2] - Due to the high uncertainty of the Trump tariff policy, be cautious about the emotional and corrective risks of gold [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Important News - Trump announced a comprehensive agreement with the UK, and other agreements are in negotiation. The EU proposed a tariff plan for US goods worth 95 billion euros if the negotiation fails [5] - The Bank of England's rate - cut decision had different views among its members, and it proposed two scenarios for decision - making [5] - The Ukrainian parliament approved the US - Ukraine mineral agreement on May 8, with some concerns about the details of the agreement [5]