光大期货金融期货日报-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Stock Index Futures: The index has support both up and down, and is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. The joint press conference of three departments announced policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market, which helps stabilize market confidence and lift stock market valuations. The revenue growth rate decline of A - share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and net profit has rebounded, but ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. Sino - US tariff negotiations are ongoing, and the issue is not expected to be fully resolved in the short term [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market is expected to run bearishly. The RRR and interest rate cuts have been implemented, and the bond market has priced in the expectations of weakening fundamentals and monetary policy efforts. The yield curve is expected to steepen again, with short - term bonds benefiting from the RRR and interest rate cuts and long - term bonds being relatively bearish under the background of rising risk appetite [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The central bank announced RRR and interest rate cuts to relieve the pressure on commercial bank spreads and reduce the debt - side costs of enterprises. The financial regulatory authority will promote long - term funds to enter the market, which helps stabilize market confidence and enhance the allocation value of A - share assets. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. The revenue growth rate decline of A - share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and net profit has increased by about 4% year - on - year, but ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. Sino - US tariff negotiations are ongoing [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On the previous trading day, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts rose by 0.26%, 0.17%, 0.16%, and 0.05% respectively. The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with the interest rate lowered to 1.4%. The DR001 and DR007 interest rates declined. The bond market is expected to run bearishly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On May 8, 2025, IH rose by 0.70%, IF by 0.82%, IC by 0.71%, and IM by 1.07%. Among stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 0.33%, the CSI 300 by 0.56%, the CSI 500 by 0.41%, and the CSI 1000 by 0.76% [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On May 8, 2025, TS rose by 0.05%, TF by 0.17%, T by 0.19%, and TL by 0.24% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The Fed FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference indicated that the interest rate decision remained unchanged for the third consecutive time this year, and Powell reiterated that the Fed did not need to rush to cut interest rates [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will launch high - quality projects with a total investment scale of about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bond cash bonds [13][15][17]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][24][25].