西南期货早间评论-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low Treasury bond yields and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals, including going long, shorting, or remaining on the sidelines [14][17][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution is advised [5][7]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The new energy vehicle market in April had certain growth. Although there are concerns about the economy due to tariffs, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The EU plans to take counter - measures against US tariffs. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][13]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: On the previous trading day, prices fell. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, prices corrected. The increase in demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On the previous trading day, prices dropped significantly. Coking coal supply is loose, and the possibility of further price increases for coke is low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - Ferroalloys: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron prices rose. The supply is still high, and the demand is weak. Investors can consider options opportunities for manganese silicon and silicon iron [21][22]. Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil trended lower. OPEC+ plans to increase production in May - June, but tariff agreements may be beneficial. It is advisable to consider going long on the main crude oil contract [23][25]. - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, fuel oil trended up. The relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative, while tariff negotiations and inventory reduction may be positive. It is advisable to consider going long on the main fuel oil contract [26][27]. Rubber (including Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber) - Synthetic Rubber: On the previous trading day, prices rose slightly. Supply pressure persists, and demand improvement is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [28][30]. - Natural Rubber: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Global supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [31][32]. Chemical Products (including PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda, Pulp) - PVC: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply pressure eases marginally, and demand recovers weakly. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [33][35]. - Urea: On the previous trading day, prices fell slightly. Demand growth may not offset supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [36][37]. - PX: On the previous trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance affects supply, and crude oil price trends are important. It is advisable to operate in the low - value range [38][39]. - PTA: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply and demand improve, and cost expectations are positive. It is advisable to operate in the low - value range [40]. - Ethylene Glycol: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply growth is not obvious, and inventory may decline slightly. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels [41][42]. - Short - Fiber: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Demand improves slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate with the cost [43]. - Bottle - Chip: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Cost support strengthens, and it is expected to fluctuate with the cost [44]. - Soda Ash: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply remains high, and device maintenance may cause short - term adjustments [45]. - Glass: On the previous trading day, prices fell. There is no obvious driving force in supply and demand, and market sentiment may be repaired [46][47]. - Caustic Soda: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Demand is limited, and device maintenance may have an impact [49][50]. - Pulp: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, and market sentiment is weak [52][53]. Non - Ferrous Metals (including Lithium Carbonate, Copper, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon) - Lithium Carbonate: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to trend weakly [54][55]. - Copper: On the previous trading day, prices fluctuated. The Fed's stance affects the dollar, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [56][57]. - Tin: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Mine supply may increase, and demand is affected by trade events. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly [58][59]. - Nickel: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Cost support exists, but demand may weaken. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [60]. - Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon: On the previous trading day, prices continued to decline. Demand is weak, supply reduction is limited, and prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [61][62]. Agricultural Products (including Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn, Logs) - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose slightly, and soybean oil fell slightly. Supply is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call options for soybean oil [63][64]. - Palm Oil: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Inventory may increase, and it is advisable to consider expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [65][67]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Canadian rapeseed inventory decreased, and China's import situation changed. It is advisable to consider buying rapeseed meal on dips [68][70]. - Cotton: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated. Tariff policies and weather are important factors. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73]. - Sugar: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar fell slightly. Brazilian production is increasing, and Indian production is lower than expected. It is expected to fluctuate in a range [75][78]. - Apple: On the previous trading day, prices fell significantly. Cold - storage inventory is low, and future production is uncertain. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [80][81]. - Live Pigs: On the previous trading day, prices were stable with a slight increase. Supply may increase, and demand may change seasonally. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [82][83]. - Eggs: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to gradually take profits on reverse spreads [84][86]. - Corn: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is recovering. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [87][89]. - Logs: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is entering the off - season, and demand improvement is limited. The market is weak [90][92].