新能源及有色金属日报：英美达成贸易协议，风险情绪或再度有所滋生-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Option: short put@74,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - In April, domestic copper inventories decreased significantly due to a high premium in the Comex market, leading to a global inventory flow to the US, reduced domestic imports, increased domestic maintenance, and significant copper concentrate interference. However, high uncertainties in macro factors and domestic demand outlook caused copper prices to weaken at the end of April. In May, copper prices may remain in a volatile range of approximately 73,500 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On May 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,620 yuan/ton and closed at 77,330 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 73,810 yuan/ton and closed at 74,060 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: On the day, due to the widening of the monthly spread, spot arbitrageurs actively sold goods at low prices. The Shanghai electrolytic copper shipment sentiment index was 3.07, and the procurement sentiment was 3.61, up 0.14 and 0.07 respectively from the previous day. The morning quotation for some copper types was at a premium of 220 - 280 yuan/ton, and the price decreased during the second trading session [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The UK and the US reached a trade agreement, retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel and aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK automobile imports. The US may take enforcement actions on imported services, and the UK agreed to a $10 billion Boeing aircraft purchase agreement. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points with a divided vote, and Trump criticized Powell [3] - Mine End: JCHX Mining Management plans to acquire a 5% stake in CMH and gain control for a consideration of $10 million and a contingent consideration of $4.4 million or $15.4 million. After the transaction, it will hold 55% of CMH's shares through its subsidiary and lead the development of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine [3] - Smelting and Import: As of the end of 2024, Reko Diq's possible reserves include 7.3 million tons of copper and 13 million ounces of gold. Once fully operational, it is expected to produce 240,000 tons/year of copper and 297,000 ounces/year of gold in the first stage, and increase to 460,000 tons/year of copper and 520,000 ounces/year of gold in the second stage's first decade [4] - Consumption: In April 2025, the actual output of domestic refined copper rods was 1.0396 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.87% and a year-on-year increase of 19.34%. In May, the estimated output is 996,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.18%. The cumulative estimated output from January to May is 4.5265 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.85%. The capacity utilization rate in April was 67.82%, up 6.41% month-on-month and 8.61% year-on-year [4] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 194,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on May 6 was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Copper prices may remain volatile in May, ranging from 73,500 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Option: short put@74,000 yuan/ton [6]