化工日报：PX装置意外增多，聚酯负荷坚挺超预期-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are short - term neutral to bullish, and mid - term performance depends on China - US tariff and crude oil changes. PX/PTA 6 - 9 calendar spread is recommended [6] Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, unexpected PX plant issues increased, and the macro - environment improved, leading to higher market prices. Polyester load remained unexpectedly strong, with the May average load potentially rising instead of falling [1] - The mid - term supply pressure of crude oil persists. Gasoline cracking shows limited upward potential, and the aromatics blending demand is weak, providing limited cost support [2] - PXN has rebounded from a low level, but the PX balance sheet is expected to show a slight inventory build - up in May. PTA is in a state of significant inventory drawdown in May, and its price fluctuates with the cost side [3] - The polyester开工率 is 93.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Short - fiber production profit has declined, and the demand improvement in May is limited. Polyester bottle - chip supply has increased, and the short - term supply - demand pressure is not significant [4] - Overall, the market sentiment has improved, but the rebound amplitude of PX and PTA is limited. Short - fiber market is in a consolidation phase, and bottle - chip prices follow raw material costs [5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - TA主力合约现货基差 is 120 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton month - on - month), and PTA spot processing fee is 371 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month) [3] Upstream Profits and Spreads - PXN is 206 dollars/ton (up 12.75 dollars/ton month - on - month). The short - process units are in a loss state, and most PX plants have stopped purchasing MX [2][3] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The aromatics blending demand is not promising, and the spreads between Asian MX, toluene and naphtha are weak [2] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Recently, unplanned maintenance and load reduction of PX plants in Japan and South Korea have increased. In May, domestic PX plants under maintenance will restart one after another, and PTA maintenance is still high [3] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is in a state of significant inventory drawdown in May, and the PX balance sheet is expected to show a slight inventory build - up [3] Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester开工率 is 93.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). The May average polyester load may rise instead of falling [4] PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 85 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the demand improvement in May is limited [4] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Polyester bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, the processing margin is limited, and the price follows raw material costs [5]