能源日报：美英达成贸易协议，油价大幅反弹-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate and build a bottom; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The crude oil market remains in a volatile pattern. Trade negotiation progress and the decline in shale oil capital expenditure are the main concerns. US large exploration and production companies plan to cut 2025 capital expenditure by about $1.8 billion and reduce at least 20 oil drilling platforms by the second half of 2025 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US crude oil June futures rose $1.84, or 3.17%, to $59.91 per barrel; Brent crude July futures rose $1.72, or 1.73%, to $62.84 per barrel [1] - Kazakhstan has no plan to cut oil production in May. OPEC+ agreed to a significant production increase for two consecutive months, which was driven by Saudi Arabia's desire to punish non - compliant members. Kazakhstan is considering options to comply with OPEC+ production cut obligations [1] - The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms. The UK will make concessions on importing US food and agricultural products in exchange for lower US tariffs on UK car exports [1] - US and Russian officials discussed helping Russia resume gas sales to Europe. Trump's push for peace in the Russia - Ukraine conflict increases the possibility of a thaw in gas relations [1] - ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $124.5 billion (mid - point of its guidance range) while keeping its production forecast unchanged. US oil company executives said they need an average oil price of $65 to make a profit [1] Investment Logic - US large exploration and production companies announced a reduction of about $18 billion in the total 2025 capital expenditure plan and will reduce at least 20 oil drilling platforms by the second half of 2025. Diamondback will cut 3 drilling platforms and 1 fracturing unit in the Permian Basin in Q2 2025 to achieve a $400 million capital expenditure reduction. ConocoPhillips will cut $450 million in capital expenditure and another $200 million in operating expenditure [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate and build a bottom; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3]