新能源及有色金属日报：镍铁价格偏弱，沪镍弱势震荡-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, due to the weakening support of refined nickel spot premium and the top - divergence phenomenon on the 60 - minute line, it is expected to have a short - term callback. In the short - term, it is recommended to suspend operations to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices [2][3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, as the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken with the falling price of nickel - iron raw materials, it may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek strong support below. Similar to nickel, short - term operations are recommended to be suspended, and medium - to - long - term selling hedges at high prices are maintained [4][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 8, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 123,880 yuan/ton and closed at 123,630 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 144,478 lots, and the open interest was 68,575 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 showed a narrow - range shock throughout the day, with a small negative line on the daily chart. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest was almost flat. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top - divergence phenomenon on the 60 - minute line near 126,400 before the May Day holiday. The spot market transaction of electrolytic nickel was sluggish, and attention should be paid to the short - term pressure level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - The morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel in the spot market was reduced by 725 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. Downstream customers had relatively sufficient pre - stockpiling, and the short - term purchasing willingness did not recover. The restocking willingness of merchants was also relatively insufficient. The overall spot transaction of refined nickel was average, and the premium increased slightly compared with the previous trading day, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 25 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,564 (- 145.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 198,312 (- 1,470) tons [2]. Strategy - It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. Short - term operations are recommended to be suspended to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices. For single - side operations, focus on range trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 8, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 12,745 yuan/ton and closed at 12,705 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 123,851 lots, and the open interest was 70,897 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract followed the nickel market in a shock trend, with a small positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume and open interest of the 06 contract decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly, and short - term downward pressure remained. Attention should be paid to the pressure level near 13,100 [4]. - In the spot market, most merchants' quotations in the Foshan market in the morning were flat compared with the previous trading day. Although the opening guidance price of steel mills was raised, market transaction support was insufficient, and market confidence was still low. The weakening of the mid - day market led most spot merchants to offer discounts for sales. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will run weakly in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 yuan/ton, with a 304/2B premium of 340 - 540 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 3.50 yuan/nickel point to 948.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Due to the continuous decline of nickel - iron raw material prices, the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken. It may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. Short - term operations are recommended to be suspended to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices. The single - side operation is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [6].