现货供应宽松，豆粕窄幅震荡

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, the soybean meal market shows narrow - range fluctuations due to ample spot supply. In the medium to long - term, with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in China will become more abundant, and the support of import costs for soybean meal prices will weaken [1][3] - For the corn market, the domestic supply is tight as the grassroots grain sources are exhausted, but the demand is affected by factors such as the inventory of deep - processing enterprises, feed enterprises' procurement strategies, and the substitution pressure from wheat [6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2919 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03%. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2563 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.08% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3340 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn and Corn Starch) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2365 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.17%. The closing price of the corn starch 2507 contract was 2731 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.51% [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] Group 5: Recent Market Information (Soybeans) - On May 7, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in May might drop to 12.6 million tons. The current export forecast by Anec shows a possible reduction of 900,000 tons compared with April this year and May last year. Brazil exported 15.27191382 million tons of soybeans in April, with an average daily export volume of 763,595.69 tons, a 14% increase from the same period last year [2] Group 6: Recent Market Information (Corn) - Brazil exported 178,347.53 tons of corn in April, with an average daily export volume of 8,917.38 tons, a 197% increase from the same period last year. As of May 7, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2024/25 season were 35.81 million tons, compared with 42.91 million tons in the same period last year. Corn exports were 18.98 million tons, compared with 23.81 million tons last year [5] Group 7: Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - The tariff policy has changed rapidly this month, causing concerns about future soybean imports. However, with the arrival of Brazilian new - season soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be relatively abundant in the coming months. The tight supply of soybean meal in the early stage of April will ease, and the inventory will replenish quickly. The support of import costs for soybean meal prices will weaken. The current tariff policy has limited impact on soybean meal prices, but policy changes, domestic soybean arrivals, and the planting and weather conditions of new - season US soybeans still need attention [3] Group 8: Market Analysis (Corn) - In China, the supply is tight as the grassroots grain sources are exhausted and traders are reluctant to sell. The demand is affected by factors such as the inventory of deep - processing enterprises, feed enterprises' procurement strategies, and the substitution pressure from wheat. The price of corn in North China increased by more than 100 yuan/ton during the May Day holiday. The supply and price of new wheat in May need attention, and the substitution pressure on corn will increase. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the release of substitute grains [6]