研究所晨会观点精萃-20250509

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Equity Index: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: Short - term cautious long [3] - Black Metals: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - Energy Chemicals: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - Agricultural Products: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro Perspective: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - Asset Allocation: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. Equity Index - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - Asphalt: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - PX: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - PTA: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - Short Fiber: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - Methanol: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - PP: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - LLDPE: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - Tin: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - Oils and Fats: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - Pigs: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - Corn: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].