黑色商品日报-20250509

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market decreased with increased positions. Spot prices dropped, and trading volume declined. This week's production, inventory, and apparent demand data were worse than expected. Considering export challenges and rumors of crude steel production cuts, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to trade in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract showed a weak and volatile trend. Supply decreased due to port maintenance in Australia, while demand increased with rising pig iron production. With high pig iron output, port inventories decreased. The iron ore futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market declined. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market transactions were average. Supply was normal, but downstream procurement slowed down, and coal enterprise inventories increased slightly. Although demand remained stable due to high pig iron production, market participants were cautious about terminal demand. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market decreased. Spot prices at ports remained unchanged. Supply was high as coke enterprises had some profits, but sales slowed down after the holiday, and inventory pressure increased slightly. Demand was good due to high blast furnace operating rates, but market confidence was weak. The short - term coke futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price rebounded. After the holiday, production cuts continued, and manganese ore prices varied. The price rebound was driven by low prices and production cut news, but there is no clear trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to production changes in major producing areas [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. There were marginal changes in the fundamentals, with continued production cuts in major producing areas but slower than expected. Cost and demand factors limited price fluctuations. The price has limited downside but lacks upward momentum in the short term, and attention should be paid to production changes in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 22.0, up 6.0; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 25.5, down 1.5 [4]. - Basis: The basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 148.0, up 26.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 103.7, up 3.5 [4]. - Spot Prices: The Shanghai rebar price was 3200.0, down 20.0; the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 752.0, down 10.0 [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The rebar futures profit was 125.7, down 7.6; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 139.0, up 20.0 [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Included price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. - Main Contract Basis: Showed the basis trends of various commodities over different contract periods [17][18][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Displayed the spread trends of different contract periods for each commodity [25][28][30][33][35][36][39]. - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Included the spread trends between different commodities such as hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, etc. [41][42][43][45]. - Rebar Profits: Presented the profit trends of rebar in different processes (futures, long - process, short - process) [46][47][49]. 3.3 Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [52]. - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [53].