2025年5月7日国新办发布会点评：二季度经济运行不确定性加大，政策对冲恰逢其时

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations despite a high base from the previous year[2] - The trade war initiated in April 2025 has increased economic uncertainty, impacting both global and Chinese economic forecasts[3] Policy Response - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity[4] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the benchmark interest rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, potentially reducing the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1%[10] Market Impact - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in April, indicating contraction, while service and construction PMIs remained above the expansion threshold[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3342.67, and the CSI 300 Index at 3831.63, reflecting market conditions amid policy changes[5] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in March 2025 recorded a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, indicating improved consumer sentiment[17] - The consumer spending propensity reached 63.1%, the highest for Q1 since 2020, suggesting a positive trend in domestic consumption[17] Future Outlook - The IMF revised down its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 to 2.8% globally, 4.0% for China, and 1.8% for the U.S., reflecting the trade war's impact[3] - The trade war could potentially reduce China's GDP growth by approximately 2 percentage points under extreme scenarios, but actual impacts may be less severe due to adjustments in trade patterns[18] Strategic Focus - The PBOC's policies aim to stabilize the economy by targeting sectors most affected by the trade war, such as manufacturing and real estate[11] - The government is expected to continue emphasizing domestic demand to counteract external uncertainties, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending and investment in technology[19]