股指期货周报-20250509

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on stock index futures released by Ruida Futures Research Institute on May 9, 2025 [2] Report's Core View - A-share major indices oscillated upward this week, with all three major indices closing higher. The four major stock index futures also rose, with small and medium-cap stocks performing equally well as large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading activity increased slightly this week. The joint release of the "package of financial policies" by relevant departments increased the medium- and long-term liquidity supply and released positive signals of the monetary policy to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite [4][85] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures Performance: IF2506 rose 2.35% this week with a -0.15% decline on Friday, closing at 3840.20; IH2506 rose 2.15% with a 0.11% increase on Friday, closing at 2683.60; IC2506 rose 2.01% with a -0.86% decline on Friday, closing at 5702.40; IM2506 rose 2.55% with a -1.10% decline on Friday, closing at 6056.20 [8] - Spot Index Performance: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.00% with a -0.17% decline on Friday, closing at 3846.16; the Shanghai 50 rose 1.93% with a 0.17% increase on Friday, closing at 2684.01; the CSI 500 rose 1.60% with a -0.90% decline on Friday, closing at 5721.72; the CSI 1000 rose 2.22% with a -1.23% decline on Friday, closing at 6082.08 [8] 2. News Overview - Trade Data: In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. In April, the total goods trade imports and exports were 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [11] - Financial Policies: On May 7, the central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the securities regulatory commission jointly introduced a "package of financial policies," including a series of measures to support market stability and expectations [11] - Sino-US Economic and Trade Talks: China decided to engage in talks with the US under certain conditions, emphasizing mutual respect, equal negotiation, and mutual benefit [11] - Holiday Data: During the May Day holiday, the cross-regional personnel flow exceeded 14.65 billion person-times. The number of domestic tourist trips was 314 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the total tourism spending was 180.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [12] 3. Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.92% this week with a -0.30% decline on Friday, closing at 3342.00; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.29% with a -0.69% decline on Friday, closing at 10126.83; the STAR 50 fell 0.60% with a -1.96% decline on Friday, closing at 1006.32; the SME 100 rose 1.49% with a -0.62% decline on Friday, closing at 6294.71; the ChiNext Index rose 3.27% with a -0.87% decline on Friday, closing at 2011.77 [15] - External Main Indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 fell 0.40% this week with a 0.58% increase on Thursday, closing at 5663.94; the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.75% with a -0.32% decline on Thursday, closing at 8531.61; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.21% with a 0.37% increase on Thursday, closing at 22775.92; the Nikkei 225 rose 1.83% with a 0.41% increase on Thursday, closing at 37503.33 [16] - Industry Sector Performance: All industry sectors rose, with national defense and military industry, communication and other sectors having relatively large increases. Most industry sectors had net outflows of main funds, with the basic chemical sector having a significant net outflow [20][24] - SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates: SHIBOR short-term interest rates declined, indicating a relatively loose capital market [28] - Other Data: This week, major shareholders had a net secondary market increase of 6.504 billion yuan, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 44.622 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 507.4 billion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM oscillated [33][41][44] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Market Outlook: A-share major indices oscillated upward this week. China's foreign trade continued to grow steadily in April, and the "package of financial policies" released on May 7 increased medium- and long-term liquidity supply and released positive signals. The market risk appetite has significantly recovered, and the trading volume has also increased [85] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, but be vigilant about potential pullbacks if the tariff negotiations do not meet expectations [85]