Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-09 08:52Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the coke market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory and weak post - holiday market sentiment. The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand balance has limited upward space for iron - water production. The coke main contract is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: The relevant national ministries are promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, and the central bank has cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity. The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered by 0.25 percentage points since May 8th [9]. - Overseas Aspect: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Trump and the UK Prime Minister reached a limited bilateral trade agreement, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [9]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: Short - term coke supply elasticity is better than that of coking coal. The current iron - water output is 244.35 + 4.23 = 248.58 tons, and the supply - demand is in balance, with limited upward space for iron - water. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 1 yuan/ton, and the demand in the sector is under pressure due to the tariff war, facing seasonal decline in the second and third quarters [9]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the impact of tariffs, the demand in the sector is under pressure, and market confidence is insufficient. The coke main contract should be treated as operating in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of May 9, the coke futures contract open interest was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 96,300 lots. The 9 - 5 contract month - spread was - 122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The registered coke warehouse receipts were 1,190 lots, an increase of 300 lots. The futures rebar - coke ratio was 2.09, an increase of 0.08 [13][19]. - Spot Market: As of May 9, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,510 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The coke basis was 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 [25]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Industry Production: In March, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The output of coking coal in March 2025 was 4,161,470 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.23% [30]. - Coking Plant Situation: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05%, a decrease of 0.38%. The average daily coke output was 53.50, a decrease of 0.27. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 1 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 21 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 55 yuan/ton, and the average loss of secondary coke in Inner Mongolia was 48 yuan/ton [34]. - Downstream Situation: As of May 9, the average daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 245.64 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 11.14 tons compared to the same period last year. As of May 1, 2025, the total coke inventory was 9.6949 million tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons compared to the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 21.29% [38]. - Inventory Structure: As of May 9, the coke inventory of 18 ports was 2.8368 million tons, a decrease of 71,100 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 671,030 tons, a decrease of 4,190 tons, and the available days of coke were 12.1 days, a decrease of 0.07 days [43]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Export and Import: From January to March 2025, the coke export volume was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%. In April 2025, China exported 1.0462 million tons of steel, and from January to April, the cumulative steel export volume was 3.7891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20% [48]. - Real Estate: In March 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. As of the week of May 4, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - scale cities was 1.5584 million square meters, a decrease of 9.60% month - on - month and an increase of 48.76% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 510,100 square meters, a decrease of 6.18% month - on - month and an increase of 49.63% year - on - year, and in second - tier cities was 776,400 square meters, a decrease of 6.94% month - on - month and an increase of 52.71% year - on - year [51][56].